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King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes 10 Year Trends
19/07/11

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, run at Ascot on the 23rd July, is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, it was historically a good acid test for Derby winners and it is good to see last year’s Derby winner, Workforce, entered to run. He will be the first Derby winner since 2003 to run in this race.

Workforce
© Racehorse Photos

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-2-14
4yo: 8-6-41
5yo: 0-7-25
6yo+: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby earlier that season.

Gender
All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was Time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions won the Hardwicke by over 3 lengths on previous start)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
That season
Prince Of Wales’ Stakes winner (Rewilding): 25711 (2-1-5)
Highest placed Derby finisher: 1355 (1-1-4)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 81 (1-0-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding): 2203 (0-2-4)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 76953 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Arc winner (Workforce): 31 (1-1-2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 27 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 5-1-17
British-trained runners: 4-14-62
French-trained runners: 1-2-8
Other: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-12) & Michael Stoute (3-4-14) have both trained the winner 3 times in past 10 years, and the last 4 winners were trained by one or the other.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-4-14) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 5 of his 14 runners make the frame.

Price
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.48 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
• Run in last 50 days
• Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke last time out)
• Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at trip)
• Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
• Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time
• Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2010
• Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
• Priced shorter than 7/1