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Angus McNae

Captain's Blog - 30th September 2011

A nice 7/2 winner for us yesterday in the shape of Amadeus Wolf Tone at Warwick. I hope you followed me in and now have a few units for what looks set to be a busy weekend on .

The Arc takes centre stage and now we know who is going to run here is my pocket guide to the race.

1. Workforce - Won this last year and has had this race as a target for a while. The ground is an issue as he would not want it too fast and there are already a few disconcerting messages emanating from the Stoute yard. Do not be suprised if he is a non runner.

2. St Nicholas Abbey - A very talented individual whose wins at Chester and Epsom this year were impressive. He has not quite fulfilled his potential yet and my gut feeling is he may come up short on Sunday. Would like some rain.

3. Silver Pond - Won the Grand Prix de Chantilly in June beating Behkabad. He is competitive at Group 2 level but a Group 1 such as the Arc should be beyond him.

4. Hiruno D'amour - A high class colt. He has won a Group 1 over two miles and a Group 2 over 10 furlongs which underlines his versatility. He was second in the Prix Foy to Sarafina under a tender ride and is likely tobe a bigger price than he should be. He could easily make the frame.

5. Nakayama Festa - Second in this race last year to Workforce after which he was injured in the Japan Cup and has not returned in good form. Last of four in the Foy.

6. So You Think - to stay or not to stay that is the question and it is one that has been overplayed a bit. Personally I think he has plenty of speed, after all he has won decent races over 7 furlongs. His former jockey Steven Arnold thinks speed is is main asset and if he has stamina for a mile and a half hereally will be the real deal, but I doubt it. He is a fabulously talented horse because of the trip I am out!

7. Sarafina - Many feel she should have won last year. Took the Foy with something in hand and has a great chance, but she is not a robust filly and she can get lost in the middle of races. If she gets a dream trip she can win because she has as much talent as any other horse in ther field but she needs everything to drop right.

8. Snow Fairy - Her Group 1 Honk Kong Cup win was her career best effort last year. She looked back to her best in the Irish Champion last time behind So You Thnk. That effort means she is one of the best middle distance fillies in training and if she can repeat it on Sunday she will go close before heading back to the Far East again this Autumn.

9. Treasure Beach - Has gone under the radar a little of late. An uncomplicated horse who won the Irish Derby and then the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington last time. He strikes me as the perfect type for the Breeders Cup turf rather than this ultra competitive heat.

10. Meandre - Reliable Man put him in his place in te Prix Niel and will do so again in the Arc.

11. Masked Marvel - This horse is very interesting. He posteda big speed figure when winning an above average St Leger and there is nothing in hos profile that suggests he cannot win a race like this at a milke and a half. He had a mid season break before the Leger so will be fresher than some. A leading player.

12. Reliable Man - The first horse since Dalakhani to win the Jockey Club and the Niel. He will need to improve to emulate that horse in the Arc but he is lightly raced and open to more improvement than most. Would not want the ground to be too fast.

13. Shareta - A Group 3 winner who was well beaten by Galikova in the Prix Vermeille. She would be better off running in the Prix Royallieu on the eve of the Arc.

14. Testosterone - Second to Galikova in the Vermeille and essentially not good enough to win the Arc.

15. Danedream - Supplemented for the race this German raider may take many by suprise. She has won two Group 1 races this year and has been impressive in doing so. the Breeders Cup filly and mare turf is her ultimate target but she may go under the radar in the market here and I think she could run huge race at a tasty price.

16. Galikova - This is a lovely filly who is getting better. She will be even better next year but after her win in the Vermeille is obviously a big player. She is versatile in terms of tactics and lightly raced. Big chance.

I hope all of this helps.

All the best.

 

Today's Selection

5.15 Ascot - Sirrius Prospect (each way)

 

 

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