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Angus McNae

Captain's Blog - 7th October 2011

At the age of eight months and 30 days my daughter crawled for the first time yesterday. I did not think this would be a momentous occasion but having seen her struggle to master the art for a couple of weeks now it really was fantastic to see her suddenly take off across the floor. She did not go far, nor did she break the land speed record, but it really was amazing.

I promised yesterday that I would have a look at Saturday's Dubai Dewhurst Stakes and hopefully sort out the winner so here is my pocket guide to the race.

1. Bronterre - Is unbeaten in two starts and improved to win the Stardom Stakes at Goodwood last time. He ran a triple-digit speed figure and there was promise of a fair bit more to come. He needs to step up again but that is entirely possible and his trainer Richard Hannon is bullish.

2.Ektihaam - Has won both of his starts. The first was a Newbury maiden that has worked out very well, and last time was a conditions stakes at Doncaster. His manner of victory has impressed many but time experts will point to two modest speed figures. He has loads of potential though and physically looks as if he will be a nice three-year-old. Overall he needs a big step forward.

3. Factory Time - A well beaten fifth in the Group 2 Mill Reef and quite simply he is not good enough to win this.

4. Most Improved - Won a maiden in good style last time by five lengths. He posted a triple digit speed figure in doing so and the manner of his win suggested that he can run even faster. The horse that finished second to him last time has since gone on to win a maiden by 10 lengths which in itself is a flimsy guide to what this horse will do in the Dewhurst but it gives us an idea that he may be above average.

5. Parish Hall - This Jim Bolger-trained horse was second in the Futurity Stakes at The Curragh last time where having been under pressure at halfway he kept pulling out more. The step up to a mile will suit him and he would be tough to beat in a strongly-run slog and we have to respect the fact that Jim Bolger runs him here. The suspicion is that he may lack the necessary speed, but if he leads against the stands rail and gradually winds up the pace he will be tough to pass.

6. Power - Won the Group 2 Coventry Stakes and Group 1 National Stakes. His record shows him to be useful but may overplay his actual ability. The National Stakes this year was sub-standard and his Coventry Stakes win was a slow-time win. He is around about 10/1 for the Guineas and that may look very skinny after the Dewhurst because Power has only a solid chance of winning.

7. Red Duke - Tom Eaves replaces Kieren Fallon on this horse and that is a very strange move. His win in the Superlative Stakes at the July course was impressive and he was then unlucky at Goodwood and then last time at Doncaster in the Champagne found himself in an unsuitable slowly run race. He looks a likely type for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf but before that he could make the frame here. But why no Fallon?

8. Spiritual Star - Really impressive when winning last time at Newmarket where he won his maiden by six lengths in a good time. He looks the type to make into a decent three-year-old and he deserves his place in this field and could cause an upset.

9. Trumpet Major - Like Bronterre is trained by Richard Hannon. He won the Champagne at Doncaster and is a solid type for minor pattern events but this may just be beyond him. Others in the field have already proved they can run faster.

All in all, this is a sub-standard Dewhurst in my opinion and not one to get too involved in. Spiritual Star at 8/1 makes some appeal each way but I am not going to put him up as a selection.

I am in the studio today to cover the action from Carlisle. Do join us from 1.30pm.

 

Today's Selection

3.40 York - Lisiere (5/2 SkyBet )

 

 

QuinnBet

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