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Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends
09/11/11

The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 12th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 11th to 13th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander in recent years. Last season Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.

Holmwood Legend
© racing-images.co.uk

Holmwood Legend

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-11
6yo: 3-4-27
7yo: 4-8-42
8yo: 2-5-40
9yo: 1-5-20
10yo+: 0-0-19
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented 64% of the total runners.
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-66
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-16-93
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 94504FPP65 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 6-11-55
Horses rated 136 to 145: 4-7-73
Horses rated 135 or less: 0-8-31
6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 34.6% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 5 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were second season chasers (3 more experienced chasers had all won at grade 2 level)
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Cheltenham or Carlisle

Other Races
Zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Billie Magern): 1F43F28 (1-3-7)
Previous year’s December Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 125 (1-1-3)
Centenary Novice H’cap Chase winner (Divers): 1F (1-0-2)
Betfred The Bonus King H’cap Chase winner (Hector’s Choice): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 84 (0-1-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 2P (0-1-2)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 9 (0-0-1)
Murphy Group H’cap Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 470 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Holmwood Legend): 477PP6 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase at previous year’s meeting, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Jewson Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s December Gold Cup, finishing 1F
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival

Trainers
The Pipe stable (4-2-20) have accounted for 4 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 4 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-8) has only had one placed finisher from 8 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) has been the trainer to follow in recent years, saddling the winner in 08 & 10 and filling one of the places in 07 & 09.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-12), Ferdy Murphy (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the last 10 years.
Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) trained Tranquil Sea to win in 2009.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-7), Paul Nicholls (0-4-17) and Alan King (0-3-7) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2001
Irish based trainers (1-1-16) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.

Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2001 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 9.25.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-13+
• Officially rated 146 or higher
• Having first or second run of the season
• Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
• Previously run less than 10 times over fences
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in no more than 2)
• Second season chaser
• Trained in Great Britain
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
• Favourite does well

 

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