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The Welsh National 2011  

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Wymott & Giles Cross The Early Value In The Welsh National Antepost Market 08/12/11

With Christmas fast approaching, most people could be forgiven for looking forward to the season of merriment and overindulgence but for Racing purists, the best thing about Christmas is the period following the big day as the week from Boxing Day to new Year is packed with top class National Hunt racing and one of the highlights of the post-Christmas racing calendar is the Welsh National, a race in which there is plenty of antepost value to be had.

Synchronised
© Grossick Racing Photography

Synchronised

The key to find a winner of the Welsh National is to find the decent quality staying types with a good record of fences. This reasoning is down more than anything to the nature of the undulating course and the usual soft ground conditions (often bottomless) that the race is run on at Chepstow Racecourse. The distance of 3m5f is said to feel a lot further by many of the jockeys who have to negotiate 22 fences en route to the winning post and the age of the horse could also be a worthy factor to consider given there has only been one horse aged over nine to have won the race since 1993.

Winner of last season’s race was the Jonjo O’Neill trained, Synchronised, who had champion jockey, Tony McCoy on board, who was to win the first leg of his now famous Grand National double. Synchronised will be back again this year in search of back to back wins; thus becoming the first to achieve the feat since Bonanza Boy in 1988-89. The eight year old had won the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in March 2010 and had warmed up for the Welsh National with a couple of spins over hurdles. He has already had one hurdle race to sharpen him up this season which came a couple of weeks ago at Haydock and he is likely to have another one in the next week or so. He will race off the same weight this year of 11-6 and as a result is justifiably the antepost favourite at 13/2 in the latest Welsh National betting.

Giles Cross
© Racehorse Photos

Giles Cross
The horse that finished 2¾ lengths behind Synchronised last season, the Victor Dartnell trained, Giles Cross, also feature prominently in the betting. He will be a pound better off with Synchronised this time around and connections will be confident of reversing the placings. He is of the classic staying mould, a recognised mud lover who was a very creditable second over the gruelling 4m1f of the Eider Chase on almost unraceable ground at Newcastle last season. He has already been out and won this season taking the 3m4f Southern Handicap Chase on soft ground at Fontwell last month and should come into the race at the top of his game and the current price of 10/1 is likely to seem big come the day of the race, 27th December.

Carruthers, winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup a fortnight ago, has been given a burden of 11-3 for the Welsh National, a huge rise from the 10-4 he carried in that Newbury feature. He is one of the classier stayers in the race and should the ground turn out decent, he would be in with a chance but there are a number who look to be better off at the weights than he is and at 12/1, it may pay to look elsewhere at this stage.

There has been considerable interest in the Donald McCain entry, Wymott, who was sixth, 6½ lengths behind Carruthers in the Hennessy last month but is 9lb better off at the weights for the Welsh National. He proved at Newbury that he has the stamina and the jumping prowess to be a real danger in races like the Welsh National. Proven in testing conditions together with the record of his stable in big races over the last couple of years, he might be worth considering with odds of 11/1.

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