Captain's Blog - Wednesday 10th October
There is plenty of action on today. Three meetings will keep us busy through the day and on into the night. My role today will be to keep the whole thing afloat from the studio during the day before handing over to the rising star that is Oli Bell.
Prior to settling into my chair in the studio I am going to look at the speed figures from the Cambridgeshire meeting and hopefully they will throw up another gem as they did when I had a look at the Ebor meeting and found that Gordon Lord Byron had run a figure that marked him out as a potential Group One winner.
He has that Group One in the bag now, which really is a good illustration of the power of figures as opposed to analysis that attempts to string together so many variables and ultimately leads to confusion. With a fair wind I will have something to publish in the next few days.
Our selection yesterday was third, which is no good to man nor beast. To be fair he was only the third best horse in the race and in tipping him I got what I deserved, absolutely nothing.
Today I am looking to make up for that debacle with a winner and am relying on Angus Og in the nursery at Nottingham to get us back on track. This horse was impressive when winning last time and in doing so posted a decent speed figure for a two-year-old. Many will tell you that he only won a weak maiden, that does not bother me a jot because he won the race in a fast time. It is not what he beat that matters, but how he beat them. Let me explain. If Usain Bolt ran against you and me would it really be valid to say that he is no good because he beat rubbish, no such analysis is futile without looking at the time he ran and when you see he ran sub 10 seconds then you can ignore the fact that he beat a couple of old plodders. Angus Og at 9/1 is cracking each-way value today and I rate him as a 4 * each-way bet.
Right I need to start crunching those numbers from the Cambridgeshire meeting. Have A good day.
3.00 Nottingham - 4* Angus Og (each way 9/1 various firms)
* If I have a strong view about a selection I will always make that apparent and I scale the confidence I have in my selections. One is minimum faith and 10 is maximum bet stuff.
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