Captain's Blog - Friday 12th October
The Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket produced a moderate set of speed figures. In short there was not one performance that was of Group One or Two standard. This does not mean that their faces were not interesting and in terms of the maidens there was plenty of promise for the future on show.
The compilation of speed figures is a complicated one that involves creating a raw figure and then tweaking that figure to represent how the ground was riding. This is done with the use of a variant. This variant, if the ground was on the slow side, would probably be a positive one and the raw figure would be increased by the variant figure. The converse is true if the ground was fast, the raw figure being reduced by a negative variant.
When a horse has run a big figure you can be certain that he/she has performed to their optimum on the day because they have produced that figure in a strongly-run race. A poor figure can be a proper valuation of a horses ability, but it can also be an indicator of a slowly-run race and thus when calculating figures very poor raw figures should be regarded as chuck-out races.
Laying horses with poor recent figures can be a way to play a race, but only if you are sure the figure was a true reflection of the horses ability rather than a slowly run race. A big figure is always a reflection of a horse's ability and thus big figures are more reliable than poor ones.
Here are my speed figures for all the winners at the Cambridgeshire meeting. Click on the name of the horse to see the full result and watch the race.
Waterway Run 108
I hope you find these of some use.
Just one selection today. It is Gallena in the 12.00 at Bath. I expect this horse to give Ryan Moore his first winner since coming back from injury. I rate this horse as a four star wager.
12.00 Bath - 4* Gallena
* If I have a strong view about a selection I will always make that apparent and I scale the confidence I have in my selections. One is minimum faith and 10 is maximum bet stuff.
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