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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 13th October

The journey to Flat racing’s HQ was a smooth one and on a Friday!  Bonus!  There was plenty of turbulence on the journey and the strong winds prevailed continually across the Rowley Mile course together with some rain at 4.45pm.

If you are coming to Newmarket wrap up warm as the course is exposed to the elements.  Dawn Approach arrived at 4.45pm and he is shortening all the time for the Dewhurst Stakes

Had to revoice the Cesarewitch essentials; the quandary being which paragraphs containing key runners to drop.  And I’m going to hold my hands up to you now that Decoy, Beyond, Albert Bridge and Martyr have all had to miss the cut.  Hopefully though they will be topics of conversation within the studio this morning.

They all have key parts to play particularly Beyond and Decoy, who may use front-running tactics and one, if not both, can keep galloping.  This aides both Hurricane Higgins (a drifter on the exchanges) and Martyr, who was held up on his most recent start, however we are none the wiser to whether he stays or not.  

I can’t deny it would have been harsh had Montaser missed out on the opportunity to run.  It is very rare for all 55 acceptors to stand their ground, which left Montaser as first reserve, no surprise what unfolded yesterday as connections had made no secret of intentions which is more than fair. 

However should we kick off or accept a huge patron of the sport is giving himself the best chance to win the race in consecutive years?  It does change slightly the complex of the race, as in theory Montaser now being able to take his chance gives his rivals problematical opposition.  The betting is slightly distorted as 8% of the market hasn’t had to be redistributed. It can be taken as a positive as Countrywide Flame is now 10-1 in places, whereas had he not run he'd arguably be 6-1 and others towards the head of the betting would be shorter also.  

It’s been no secret that Countrywide Flame was going to be my selection and if he doesn’t oblige then roll on Cheltenham.

The Middle Park looks a cracker and although I think Reckless Abandon will win I’m going to dabble in a forecast with Master Of War and have an each-way bet on Richard Hannon’s runner. 

As for the Dewhurst, there is a need for Dawn Approach to win; we all love a champion. With the departure of Frankel from competitive action after next week racing needs hope for next season and Dawn Approach can be the ideal starting point.

At York the ground is testing, we know that from yesterday’s experiences, and with that in mind and the need for a high draw in York’s 3.45 I’m going for Bubbly Bellini.

Now counting down the days to judging Betting Shop Manager of the Year.  The competition is down to the last 24 and I start grilling them in 12 days time, can't wait. 

Today's tips:

3.35 Newmarket Countrywide Flame

3.45 York Bubbly Bellini


Tanya's Pointers:

Nine of the ten winners of Chepstow’s 3.40 came from the first two in the betting

Paul Nicholls has won Chepstow’s 3.40 four times in the last ten years

Nine of the ten winners of Chepstow’s 5.20 came from the first three in the betting

Since 1990 seven horses came into the Middle Park unbeaten in three or more races, six have won

Jim Bolger has won the Dewhurst four times in the last six years

Nine of the last ten winners of the Cesarewitch finished in the first four on their most recent start

Nine winners since 1998 have had at least one run over hurdles prior to the Cesarewitch

Since Vintage Crop won in 1992 only two favourites have obliged

Kevin Ryan’s last 17 runners in the Coral Sprint Trophy have all been beaten

Seven of the last ten winners of the Coral Sprint Trophy came from a double figure stall


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