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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 24th November

Apologies to those who listened in to Talksport on Friday morning and heard my offering. As you probably guessed I was concentrating on what was happening at the Adelaide Oval more than the forecast ground conditions. The new Surrey captain was clearing his third century against Australia.  Still if I am asked again, which I hope I am, I will be fully prepared next time.

A rare Saturday off beckons and I can’t wait, the ultimate armchair critic, plus I will be emptying the pocket on a few intriguing little scenarios. The Betfair Chase has incited much debate, like many I am in the 'oppose Long Run' camp especially on potentially really sticky ground. His jumping can be lacking in lustre, but when tired he may struggle to leap out and over obstacles smoothly.

Silviniaco Conti took your breath away when bounding clear at Wetherby, if allowed to really exert he could have won by a couple of fences. And if it wasn’t for the fact Long Run boasts a Cheltenham Gold Cup win you could argue the gap in the betting should be much smaller! I’ve stupidly already done enough ante-post on this race by backing Tidal Bay, but at 12+ he did look incredibly attractive, but he was that price because I now know it wasn’t an intended target.

My leftfield saver will be on Cannington Brook, and I’ll be taking a slice of action on the reverse forecast with him and Silviniaco Conti. 

With so many small fields there is little or no opportunity to really find stand-out selections as I don’t like backing odds-on. Obviously Oscar Whisky and Finian’s Rainbow will be popular and will be put in multiples. Although I think Oscar Whisky should win I’m a huge fan of Get Me Out Of Here. There have been missed opportunities by never running him in a Champion Hurdle, but wouldn’t it be wonderful if he turned up in a World Hurdle? Raya Star is no push over, either.

Merigo has not won in seven starts in November, but the dual Scottish National winner should not be dismissed lightly. Unbeaten on heavy ground he needs to be forgiven an abysmal effort on reappearance, he does look tempting and interesting in the 2.00 at Haydock. Il De Re didn’t run too bad when favourite at Ascot behind Raya Star, he can be very dangerous in Haydock’s second race.

The mud-splattered silks of the jockeys at Ascot on Friday advertised that the ground certainly has some give, and more than usual. Pepite Rose ran well enough at Ascot last time and would have been closer, but for a fence being omitted. 

Finally congratulations to all the RCA Showcase winners. Overall champions were Goodwood and other courses such at Doncaster, who is a multiple winner at the event and Beverley excelled this year, as did York, Ayr, Aintree and Newbury. The key to all of this is that customers do need TLC and various incentives, good food and facilities.

While I remember don't forget RacingPlus now provide a Point-to-Point supplement, which is invaluable in finding future champions.

 

Today's tips:

12.55 Haydock: Il De Re (3/1 bet365)

2.00 Haydock: Merigo (25/1 Paddy Power)

3.05 Haydock: Silviniaco Conti/Cannington Brook (rev forecast)

 

Tanya's Pointers:

Paul Nicholls has won four of the last nine runnings of the Amlin Chase

Barry Geraghty has won nine of the 13 races he has ridden Finian’s Rainbow

Nine of the last ten winners of the Coral Hurdle have come from the first two in the betting

Barry Geraghty has won 11 of the 15 races aboard Oscar Whisky

AP McCoy has ridden Get Me Out Of Here fifteen times to six wins and four seconds

Aidan Coleman’s last ten rides for Venetia Williams reads 11P1313602

Merigo hasn’t won in seven races in November throughout his career

Dr Richard Newland has had three winners from his last five runners

Second favourites have won six of the last seven runnings of Lingfield’s 12.45

Courtesy of Kauto Star Paul Nicholls has won four of the last six Betfair Chases

Long Run has never finished out of the first three over chase fences

 

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