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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Wednesday 13th March 2013

Tuesday results were the type to warm you to the very core.  The first favourite may have got turned over in the Festival opener, which now makes it nine years since the jolly obliged in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Hurdle but someone, or should I say plenty of people, knew that Champagne Fever would put up a bold show! 

It was a day which was monopolised by Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins - my bet on AP McCoy to be top jockey now needs a miracle as I’d hoped at least either My Tent Or Yours or Colour Squadron would win. 

I hit the crossbar a few times yesterday. Baily Green ran a cracker in second in the Racing Post Arkle, Our Mick was beaten by a galvanised Golden Chieftain, and I backed Rajdhani Express last time out. How galling.

As for the betting ring and big bets, there was plenty and there are now potentially plenty of pitches for sale after those set of results.  There was a £50,000 and a £10,000 at 2-1 on My Tent Or Yours. And £35,000 and £7,000 and many at smaller amounts on Simonsig at 4-7. 

To get Hurricane Fly’s price to move from 2-1 into 13-8 takes some doing in the ring of this strength also especially as those standing up wanted to oppose the 2011 Champion Hurdler

History was created by not only him but the wonderful Quevega. The noise from the record day one crowd for her as she came down the walkway were louder than when the tapes went up for the Supreme. 

By the time Quevega had won I didn’t think it was the tactful thing to do to ask how those standing were getting on as with the queues so long it was quite obvious. 

As I sat typing this in the press room late yesterday the covers were back on and the blowers were clearing up all the litter. It is hard still to soak in all that has gone on during the first day and get ready for day two. 

The momentum is with the Irish, which is a joy to watch and I don’t have any strong feelings about this day.

If Pont Alexandre was the Irish banker before day one he could go off Evens in the Neptune! 

My attention will be more focused come 2.30pm at preliminaries for the RSA Chase. Houblons Des Obeaux has proved a dependable force all season the yardstick from which we have been judging all the form.  Perhaps it’s time he enjoys his bit of deserved glory.  Venetia Williams has been doing tremendously well all season to add confidence. 

Then it’s time for déjà vu in the Coral Cup. A few years ago I backed Orsippus each-way and he did me proud snatching a place at 33-1.  The way he ran behind Peddlers Cross at Musselburgh I’m hoping the feat can be repeated.

Finally it will be hard to resist Richard Hughes aboard Sgt Reckless in the Bumper.

 

Tanya's tips:

2.40 Cheltenham Festival Houblons Des Obeaux (10/1 bet365)

4.00 Cheltenham Festival Orsippus (each-way) (40/1 bet365)

 

Tanya's pointers:

National Hunt Chase

Five and six-year-olds are one from 63 since 1989

Jonjo O’Neill has won four of the last eleven runnings

Twenty six of the last 28 winners finished in the first four last time out

Seven of the last ten finished first or second last time out

Horses aged nine or over are 0 from 38 in the last ten years

Two outright favourite since 1992

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

Twenty two of the last 25 winners had run at least three times over hurdles

Challow Hurdle winners are 0 from 13, which means Taquin Du Seuil may find things tough.

Twenty seven of the last 28 winners finished either first or second last time out

Since 1996 22 horses have worn some sort of headgear or been tongue tied, none have managed to even reach the frame.

Only one horse older than six has won since 1974 and over 109 have tried.

AP McCoy has had 14 rides without a win in the race, best finish 2nd in 1998 & 2009

Nigel Twiston-Davies has had a winner, a third and two fourths since 1999

Ireland have had five of the last ten winners

RSA Chase

Thirty three of the last 36 winners finished first or second last time out

Just two six-year-olds have won since 1978

Eight of the last ten winners were aged seven

Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds since 1998

The average winning distance is seven and a half lengths since 1999

Since 2000 Ruby Walsh has ridden a second and won in 2007 & 2009

Since 1997 AP McCoy has had a winner in 2008, three seconds and two thirds1

Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase

All of the last 12 Arkle Chase winners to run in the Champion Chase have finished in the first three, six have won

Nineteen of last 25 (75% since 1985) winners had been placed at worse at previous Cheltenham Festivals

Seven of the last 10 winners had won on their last start

Master Minded was the first of ten reigning champions to regain his crown

Twenty five of the last 29 winners started a single-figure price

Just one win for a horse aged older than ten since 1977

Eight of the last 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase

Sprinter Sacre has won his chase races by an average distance of 13 lengths

Since 1960 only four of the 16 odds-on favourites to run in the Champion Chase have won

Since 1999 Paul Nicholls has been represented by one or more runner on eleven occasions, he has won four times and had three thirds

AP McCoy has won in 2000 on Edredon Bleu, plus has finished second four times and third once

Coral Cup:

Seven of the last ten finished first or second last time out

Only one winning favourite and one joint favourite in all the 19 runnings

Eight of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11-0

Since 1996 23 horses aged 10 or more have run with only a second placing

Since 1996 over a hundred horses have worn headgear only nine have reached the frame.

AP McCoy has ridden six Coral Cup favourites (joint or otherwise) all have been beaten

AP McCoy’s last 13 rides have all been beaten. His best finish was second in 1997 & 2012

Since 2003 Richard Johnson has ridden a fourth, three thirds, and won in 2004

 

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