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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Friday 31st May 2013

Waterway can end dodgy Run for me

My fingers were straight to the keyboard as soon as I arrived back from Epsom on Thursday early afternoon. The home of the Oaks and Derby is my local and is very convenient.

First of all best wishes to Tom O’Ryan, the presenter, for a speedy recovery after a freak accident at his home on Wednesday. 

Tom we need you back for your expert and insightful analysis on and your dry wit in the press room.  I, and I’m sure many others, will be thinking of you while I’m at Epsom over the next couple of days and in the future until you are back on course with us.

The next pair of Classics meant getting accreditation for the two days was crucial and soaking up the atmosphere very important.  As far as betting rings go, Epsom’s is not the biggest considering the onslaught it’s going to have to withstand.  However there will be bookmakers everywhere, on the Downs and at Tattenham Corner.  No doubt the majority will want to get stuck into Dawn Approach but there is the small matter of the Oaks to contend with first.

Brian Gleason and I are interpreting the betting over the two days, with Brian fresh from the Curragh having worked for RTE on the Irish 1000 Guineas & Irish 2000 Guineas. He’ll have some crucial snippets on the form of the Irish raiders.

Fitness-wise I feel at my peak having racked up six hours in the gym in various classes this week, with one class to go later on Thursday night.  If I’m going to be buffeted around in the betting enclosure I need to be nimble. 

I gave myself the luxury of a few minutes to stand by the winning post and look up the course to Tattenham corner and I noticed there is plenty of running rail protecting a substantial amount of ground.

If it remains in that manner for Friday it sure makes Tattenham Corner sharp and gives potential for the runners to come to the stands’ side.  Not unfamiliar for the Oaks. 

Okay, the rain over the last couple of days has at times been substantial and even today there has been some heavy showers, but the temperature was noticeably warming with every hour that passed.  So what rain has fallen today has evaporated back in to the atmosphere. 

The forecast is for a very hot Oaks day, which gives the potential for the ground to dry up further. 

So having checked in at Epsom and and ambled around for an hour or so, I headed back home.  Just a warning, when leaving Epsom if you are heading back down the A217 towards the M25 at present there are roadworks with only one lane open.  Fine today, but if they are still around tomorrow and Saturday you may as well pitch a tent on the Downs!

I’m still in a quandary over who to back in the Oaks.  After being at Newmarket to watch the 1,000 Guineas live, it was going to be Snow Queen and Moth.  Snow Queen ran in the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday and as for Moth she is a drifter on the exchanges.  I know that is not an automatic negative, as Secret Gesture is dominating the market and contracting in price all the time so all the others including Moth are drifting. 

I watched Lingfield on Thursday afternoon and congratulations to Mark Tompkins for landing his first winner in 2013. I digress only because the conditions are similar to that of the Oaks & Derby trials day when Secret Gesture sauntered home. 

Lest we forget that Liber Nauticus ground out her win in good to soft conditions at York in the Musidora and Banoffee acts with cut. My head says Moth, but my heart says Secret Gesture so I am leaving well alone, unless Moth drifts out to a silly price of 5-1 or bigger.

As for the selections, Resurge is a course specialist and he acts on soft. Then there is Waterway Run, who ran in the French 1,000 Guineas. She has a good chance in a competitive Princess Elizabeth Stakes. Finally Vainglory has placed twice in the mile handicap at 3.20pm and I can see the old veteran keeping out of trouble and sneaking a place again.

Here’s hoping just like Mark Tompkins my luck this year will finally change, it’s not been the best so far!

Tanya's tips:

1.35 Epsom Waterway Run

2.10 Epsom Resurge at 7-1 with Paddy Power

3.20 Epsom Vainglory each-way at 12-1 withbet365 and William Hill

 

Tanya's pointers:

Investec Oaks:

Seven of the last 16 favourites have won the Oaks

The last time a horse who ran in the 1000 Guineas went on to win the Oaks was Casual Look in 2003 and she had finished sixth at Newmarket. 

Only two of the last ten Oaks winners had already run in a Group One

In 2002 Kazzia won both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks

Eight of the last ten winners of the Investec Oaks finished no worse than second on their most recent start. 

Princess Elizabeth Stakes:

Eight of the last ten winners of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes came from the first two in the betting, six of them were favourites

Seven of the last ten winners of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes were trained in Newmarket

Eight of the last ten winners of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes were aged four

Diomed Stakes:

The favourite last won the Diomed Stakes in 2002 and even then it was Nayyir who was joint-favourite.

Nine of the last ten winners of the Diomed Stakes were aged five or older.

Seven of the last ten winners of the Diomed Stakes finished in the first three on the most recent start

 

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