Angus McNae - Tuesday 30th July 2013
Hughes and Queally so good around Goodwood
Five days of top class racing from the Sussex Downs is coming up and it is all live on . Glorious Goodwood is always a difficult meeting for punters given the big fields and the tricky nature of the track. With this in mind jockeyship will be more in focus here than at other track and therefore I thought it pertinent to have a look at the top jockey market.
Richard Hughes is favourite at 11-8 followed by Ryan Moore at 7-4. Both have excellent records at the track. Over the last five years Hughes has a 20% strike-rate. Ryan Moore strikes at 18%. These are both excellent figures and provide ample justification for their respective places in the market. Kieran Fallon is the interesting one in terms of strike-rate for, like Hughes, he operates at 20% at the track. It stands to reason that he will struggle to ride more winners than Hughes because he will not get as many rides.
The one I would be interested in outside of Richard Hughes would be Tom Queally, who has an 18% strike rate and has plenty of booked rides. He is currently 20-1 with SkyBet and I would be tempted to having a few quid on him at that price.
You may rightly ask why Hughes, Moore and Fallon seem to be so much better than the rest at this track. The answer partly lies in the quality rides that they get, but a larger part of their success comes from their ability to ride the track without fear.
Unlike others they do not pull wide and kick their horses on three out just to get a clear run, they are prepared to wait in traffic, to conserve their horse’s energy and to challenge when other, shall we say, more premature riders have run out of horse.
Yes Richard Hughes finds trouble in-running as does Fallon, but they still have better strike-rates than others who like to find daylight and use their horse’s energy far too early in the race.
As ever the day one card is very strong. I have just one selection and it comes in the 3.40 in the shape of Silver Rime.
I was really impressed with this horse when he beat a strong field at Ascot last time out. He travelled well throughout and was not hard pressed to win.
This represented a return to form for this horse who was starting to look as if he had lost his way, but he is firmly back on track now and with Ryan Moore on board I think he has an outstanding chance. At the time of writing he is 7/1 with Paddy Power.
Through the week I will be taking a look at the sectional times that are produced and in doing so will hopefully be able to shed some light on how races were won and lost.
That said we must be a little careful with sectionals on such an undulating track in that our expectations over certain parts of the track need to be adjusted according to the topography.
For example it would be a mistake to think that a time of ten seconds in the second furlong in any six furlong race is too fast in the context of the race because this is achieved when running downhill. As long as we look at races with topographical knowledge and context the figures will be very revealing.
I hope you enjoy our coverage from Goodwood this week. I will be back tomorrow.
All the best.
Angus's Glorious Goodwood day one tips:
3.40 Goodwood - Silver Rime at 7-1 with Paddy Power
Back Richard Hughes at 6-4 with Ladbrokes in the top jockey market
Back Tom Queally at 20/1 with SkyBet in the top jockey market
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