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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 31st August 2013

Kingman race just another small field

Racing on Good Friday has certainly caused a furore and many are asking: “is nothing sacred?” And yet is this a fantastic opportunity being overshadowed by dissenting voices?

Two proposed fixtures, Lingfield and Musselburgh, await their fate next week in first discussions of next year’s racing calendar. 

However, while attention is focused on one of the most precious days of the year it might be worth checking if there are any fixtures flirting with the possibility of racing on Christmas Eve next year or in 2015.  

Before we start worrying about the fixtures we might have, how about the industry gives a bit of TLC to the fixtures that we already have?

Once again my spare time has been consumed by stats and data and this time I have immersed myself in odds-on favourites. What amount of odds-on favourites in a month is acceptable?  In June 13.4% of races contained an odds-on jolly. In July it rose to 14.8% and in August that rose to 15.6%! 

That reads badly enough but how about this overall; in those three months 422 of the 2890 races had an odds-on favourite. Of those 111 were 1-2 or shorter. 

That’s phenomenal, especially as the figure has been growing over the last three months.

Kingman runs in the Betfred Solario Solario Stakes, a four runner race, and it is great to have the chance to see next year’s Qipco 2000 Guineas favourite, but he is 1-2 for Saturday's race. 

Will he instigate massive turnover and earn plenty for the levy yield, as the race has a prime slot on   and Channel 4 on a Saturday?  The blow is lessened as Kingman will be put in multiples with football, and to a lesser extent the Twenty20 England v Australia. 

So to sum up in August 37% of races had fewer than eight runners including 192 of 530 handicaps. Only 15 of those 530 handicaps had 16 or more runners, that’s 2.8%.  On course bookmakers are reluctant to bet a quarter the odds a place on handicaps with more than 16 runners.

The reason is because it is difficult to make it pay on the place book. They are not betting place only, however, they are betting each-way.  As a punter if you bet each-way and your selection finishes second, third or fourth, you lose the win part of the stake, so that argument is a smokescreen. Bookmakers should be agile enough to bet to sensible figures on less than 3% of races.  There are so few left who without the help of a computer can add up the percentage on their board or indeed price up a race without the aid of exchanges.

I digress. It’s a busy weekend of racing with no real headline grabbers. Sunday’s Moyglare Stud Stakes is a cracker  and I would love to see Rizeena win after such a fine effort behind No Nay Never in the Prix Morny at Deauville. 

Saturday could be a big day for Stuart Williams. His Chapter Seven must have major claims in the 3.30 at Sandown and I also like Doctor Parkes at Chester. He has a cracking record in the month of August. He always contests the most competitive of handicaps and his seventh to Bogart wasn’t all that bad as he was only three lengths behind. Drawn is stall two is a help.

The NFL starts next week, so there’s every Sunday taken care of until February. There’s bound to be a pullout in the Racing Post next week with plenty of different selections.  At present joint favourites for the Superbowl are the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers.  The latter took me to the Superbowl last year at 14-1 only to blow it in the final two minutes.  So who to side with this year? personally I’m steering clear of Denver because of the potential for injury to Peyton Manning. New England are class but ageing. 

Sticking my neck out I’m gambling on Kansas City to win the AFC West Division. On a conference level, Cincinnati come to mind as value in the AFC. If they do get to the playoffs then I credit Mitch from Star Sports, for nudging me to do my homework on them better as he has been banging on about them since June! 

As for the NFC conference, it has to be New Orleans as with Sean Payton back at the helm they are a different side. Watch out for St Louis as they look set for another big season under Jeff Fisher. An overall saver for the Superbowl would have to be the Green Bay Packers. I’ll update you next week but just wanted to be ahead of the pullout.

 

Tanya's Saturday tip:

2.20 Chester: Doctor Parkes at 11-2

Tanya's Sunday tip:

4.15 Curragh: Rizeena

 

Tanya's pointers:

Seven of the last ten winners of 2.05 Sandown has been drawn eight or higher

Eight of the last ten winners of the Solario Stakes have won on their most recent run

The run of three-year-old winners of the Atalanta Stakes, Sandown’s 3.15 dates back to 2006

Sir Michael Stoute has won the Atalanta Stakes three times in the last seven years

Although the last three winners of the 3.50 Sandown were drawn in double figures the previous seven were all drawn eight or lower

Mark Johnston’s last 12 runners have been beaten in the 3.50 Sandown

In the 2.20 Chester Doctor Parkes loves August. His 11 career starts in the eighth month have resulted in three wins, one second and a third

Seven of the last ten winners of the 2.55 Chester were drawn eight or higher

Only one of the last ten favourites have won the 2.55 Chester

Mark Johnston’s last 12 runners have all been beaten in the 2.55 Chester but he did have the third in 2012, second & third in 2011, third in 2009 and the second in 2007

Nine of the last ten winners of the 3.30 Chester came from the first three in the betting

Only one of the last ten winners of the 3.30 Chester were aged three

Four of the last six winners of the Beverley Bullet were aged three

The last nine favourites have been beaten in the Beverley Bullet

All the last nine winners of the Beverley Bullet were drawn in single figures

 

 


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