Tanya's Blog - Saturday 7th September 2013
I’ve got Soul!
When the decs came through on Thursday I nearly found myself doing cartwheels, the potential for four, yes four, handicaps with 16 runners.
Yet by 10.54am Ascot’s 3.30 was down to 15 courtesy of Renew’s double declaration. The other three look vulnerable too. For the record they are Ascot’s 5.10, Haydock’s Old Borough Cup and Kempton’s 2.55.
Just as concerning is the ubiquitous small fields, as there are five races on Saturday with less than eight runners. Worryingly, for the first four days in September there were 91 races, 48 of which had less than eight runners!
The independent racecourses will follow JCR’s lead on September 16 by introducing and enforcing standard each-way terms and, once again, the pitiful effort of a fifth on 16 to 21-runner handicaps. Standard should be a quarter on and off course.
This week I scanned bookmaker attendances which proved alarming as there were 22 fewer for Ebor Day last month, as there were in 2012. And on the same day at Goodwood, half the amount attended this year compared to 2012. This tells its own sorry story. If there isn’t sufficient turnover, bookmakers aren’t going to turn up.
As I strolled round Haydock’s betting ring on Friday just before their second race, I counted 16 bookmakers in Tattersalls and 10 on the rails. I can’t say there was enough business to go around.
Enough rain had fallen by 2.30pm to change the ground to good to soft. It was still drizzling but, in the immediate, the clouds didn’t seem angry enough and the sky in fact appeared to brighten. Remember on Saturday the Sprint Cup is run on the track nearest the stand.
The rain though makes me want to be on Soul each-way. There is no denying that Lethal Force should win the Betfred Sprint Cup, but with each drop of moisture the confidence loosens, I’m looking for value.
Rewarded ran a blinder in the Juddmonte International, totally detached early he reduced the deficit very quickly in the final two furlongs and at the end he was just seven lengths behind Declaration Of War. He runs in Kempton’s 2.20 and fingers crossed they put up racing from other courses on Haydock’s big screen.
NFL lovers if you are prone to back San Francisco to win the Superbowl I would advise to hold fire. Not only did Denver impress or should I say Peyton Manning in their destruction of Baltimore but the 49ers play Green Bay in their first match, a very hard game which could end with defeat. If they do lose their price for Superbowl glory will increase more than it will decrease if they win as next up is Seattle and the predatory Seahawks.
Tanya's Saturday tips:
2.20 Kempton: Rewarded at 20-1 with Bet Victor
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Betfred Sprint Cup came from the top three in the betting
Lethal Force and Gordon Lord Byron have met four times with Lethal Force leading three to one.
Since 1993, 11 July Cup winners have run in the Sprint Cup only Dream Ahead did the double in 2011. Seven July Cup winners were beaten favourites at Haydock.
Only three of the last 10 winners (or eight since 1993) of the Betfred Sprint Cup had a victory in a Group 1 on their CV
The fairer sex has a great record in the Betfred Sprint Cup winning five times since 1993 and five seconds and three thirds from just 36 runners
Eight of the last 10 winners of the Betfred Sprint Cup finished in the first four last-time-out
Only three of the last 10 winners of the Betfred Sprint Cup had run in the July Cup
Of the nine winners since 1993 to have taken in the July Cup, seven of them had finished in the first three at Newmarket
Only two of the last 10 winners of the Betfred Sprint Cup had run in the previous year’s Sprint Cup
Six of the last seven winners of the Betfred Sprint Cup had taken in Royal Ascot
In the Old Borough Cup seven of the last nine had finished in the first four last-time-out.
Mark Johnston has won the Old Borough Cup four times in the last nine runnings
Seven of the last nine winners of the Old Borough Cup were drawn eight or higher
Seven of the last nine winners of Haydock’s 2.40 came from the first three in the betting
RobinHoodsBay has won three of his seven runs at Kempton (AW)
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 31% strike rate at Kempton (AW) in 2013
Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Champion Stakes six times in the last 10 years
Premio Loco has never finished out of the first three in six career starts in September, three wins, two seconds and a third
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