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Angus McNae - Saturday 21st September 2013
This 33-1 Shot Can Stage an Ayr Gold Cup Repeat
Tackling a sprint handicap like the Ayr Gold Cup is a huge task. How do you collate all those form lines? What is the significance of the draw? Which horses like soft ground? Which trainers are in form? Which horse has been laid out for the race? All of these factors take an age to study and when the study is done I would wager that you are wiser but more confused than ever.
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Firstly his mark. He won the race two years ago off 105 and today gets to race off 97. In 2011 the ground was soft as it will be this year, and all of this horses best form is on soft ground. Indeed the last time he encountered it was on his first start of the season when finishing third in a Listed race at Doncaster.
His win two years ago was in a sensational time that is backed up by the speed figure, a figure that makes him very well treated. Most importantly this race will play to his strengths in that he wants to race on soft ground and come off a strong gallop.
You could rightly argue that he has not been in much form this year and you would be right, but on dead ground at Doncaster last time he hinted that he is on his way back. He was slowly away, raced in the flank thereby getting no cover and made a move at halfway before getting tired and then was given an easy time by his jockey. It looked like a good prep run to me.
His trainer is David Simcock who in the last 14 days has had five winners from 22 runners, which shows that his horses are in good nick and thus for all of the reasons stated above Our Jonathan must be backed at 25-1.
You may wonder why I have given no thought to the draw. The reason is that to pay too much attention is tantamount to torture. Who knows what is going to happen? For example from stall 13 Our Jonathan could go to either side, or stay in the middle. You cannot second guess what is actually going to happen with the draw just like second guessing how a race is going to be run. This sort of analysis is fraught with danger.
I am under no illusion that this race is very hard to call and I fear Gabrial’s Lad and Spinatrix and 15 others, but Our Jonathan is a good lad and he may just have all the stars aligned in his favour today.
Saturday's Tip:
3.50 Ayr: Our Jonathan at 25-1 with Paddy Power
