Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
|Thursday 3rd April 2014|
Bookmakers will be rubbing their hands about Mossey Joe
I am finally ensconced in the Aintree press room; the place feels like home. As I walked through the main entrance on Wednesday, my heart warmed.
There is a magic in the air, an atmosphere not replicated anywhere else, but then Aintree is special. It pens fairytales, and here the improbable is possible.
The 13-8 about Mossey Joe in the Crabbie’s Supporting The Hillsborough Families Foxhunters’ Chase would have been short enough had it been over orthodox fences, but over the big spruce obstacles it is alarming.
Bookmakers will be rubbing their hands together at the thought of something to get stuck into, and with hardly any chance of getting The New One turned over Mossey Joe’s prohibitive price is a gift.
Now he may win by a distance, but with the likely drama to play out over the fences there are plenty in the field capable of springing a surprise.
Pentiffic looked well on Wednesday and Venetia Williams has had a phenomenal season. The horse was a winner last time out at Warwick and might be suited to the fences.
Although 4-9 can be sighted The New One is generally 2-5 for the Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle. Normally I’d be dubious of horses who appear, or are unlucky, last time, and Nigel Twiston-Davies horse was badly hampered at Cheltenham.
Ignoring that run at the Festival, however, he would still be well odds-on for this event, no? I just wonder whether he is short enough. On reading the race again and again should he be more like 2-7 than 2-5? It certainly is one for debate.
Calipto is a horse who could also be a big price, in the opener after Daryl Jacob’s stirrup leather broke at a key point during the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month.
Triumph Hurdle runners have a great record in the first race of the day and he would have been close at Prestbury Park.
Finally the last race of the opening day I have been toying between Uncle Jimmy, Pateese and Seefood as they all ran well without being in camera shot in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.
Uncle Jimmy clouted two out when in contention and then faded badly. Pateese ran on up the inner, while Seefood did attract my attention and Aintree could well suit him better than Cheltenham. The race is live and exclusive on .
Let's take a deep breath and here it goes for three days of fun.
Tanya Stevenson's Thursday tips:
3.40 Aintree: Pentiffic at 16-1
Tanya Stevenson’s big-race pointers:
Barry Geraghty is enjoying a 54% strike rate at present
Nicky Henderson is enjoying a 43% strike rate
Willie Mullins is enjoying a 44% strike rate
Seven of the last ten favourites have won
Seven of the last ten winners had run in the Triumph Hurdle, with six of them finishing in the first three at Cheltenham
Nine of the last ten winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
The last nine winners finished in the first three last time out
Four of the last six winners had run in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton
Only five winning favourites since 1984 and only one in the last ten years
Seven of the last ten winners had taken in the Cheltenham Festival
Six of the last ten winners had run at Aintree before
Only four of the last ten winners had taken in the King George
In the last 30 years See More Business, First Gold and Florida Pearl all won the King George and the Betfred Bowl in the same season
Only four of the last ten winners had run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Only four favourites have won in the last 20 years
Eight of the last ten winners were a single-figure price
Nine of the last ten came from the first four in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
Five of the last ten winners took in the Champion Hurdle
Seven of the last ten winners had previously run at this Aintree meeting
Only one Irish-trained winner in thirty years
Nine of the last ten winners had been aged 10 or over
Since 1994 all but two of the winners came from the first four in the betting
Six of the last nine winners had run over the Grand National fences previously
Five winning favourites since 2002
Since 1994 Oiseau De Nuit has been the only winner aged older than nine
Six of the last ten winners had taken in the Cheltenham Festival (four of those in the Grand Annual)
Eight of the last ten winners had previously run at Aintree