Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
|Saturday 7th June 2014|
Just be Impulsive and go with the Moment
A massive thank you for all your kind get-well messages they have spurred me on to be at Epsom on Saturday so fingers crossed the recovery continues.
Abseil will be an almighty danger to all in the Royal Hunt Cup but I’m still leaning towards Chil The Kite come June 18. What a stable of potential at Freemason Lodge, Abseil, Arab Spring and Cannock Chase.
The sun has baked the ground at Epsom, it now heads towards, good, good to firm in places but there was a smattering of overnight rain. Even though there were no Aidan O’Brien runners fighting out the finish to the Oaks, Australia’s price has contracted. We await the forecast rain that is to fall.
The current odds at the time of writing for all Saturday’s races are all dependent on Epsom missing the majority of the deluge. For the atmosphere and all the fun of the fair, there is part of me who wants it to rain only in the morning to enable the ground to be good all round.
In the Investec Derby I like Geoffrey Chaucer, but when I looked at the exchanges post Oaks he along with the others who ran in the Derristown Derby Trial were all drifting. Instead I’m going to flag up an outsider who I have backed due to his willing attitude and he is a horse who I think that could roll with the camber and handle the changing gradients. It’s Impulsive Moment. I’ve gone each-way so here’s hoping he puts in a big run.
To not push my luck, I’m trying to use the laptop sparingly so I’m signing off.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
4.00 Epsom: Impulsive Moment (each-way)
5.25 Epsom: Ashpan Sam
Tanya Stevenson’s pointers:
Since 1964 19 favourites have won the Derby
Since 1993, 14 runnings of the Derby have contained at least one horse who has been unbeaten, seven have gone on to win. (Western Hymn)
Aidan O’Brien has had 24 horses run in the Derby at 10-1 or under, four have won, three finished second and one third.
Last year was the first time Aidan O’Brien had won the Derby when fielding four or more runners - he had failed on his previous seven attempts.
Before running at Epsom of the 15 of Aidan O’Brien’s runners who had won at least one Group 1, only two went on to Derby Glory; Camelot and High Chaparral
Eight of the nine horses that finished second or third in the Derby for Aidan O’Brien had finished no worse than third prior to Epsom
All of the nine horses to have finished second or third for Aidan O’Brien in the Derby had at least four runs prior to Epsom
Since 2000 eight Derby winners had won at least one Group One prior to Epsom (Kingston Hill)
Since 2000 ten Derby winners had won at least one Group One or a Group Two prior to Epsom (Kingston Hill & Geoffrey Chaucer)
Since 2000 every Derby winner with exception of Workforce had won at least a Group Three (Australia, Ebonoran, Fascinating Rock, Geoffrey Chaucer, Kingston Hill, Orchestra, Western Hymn)
Since 1999 every winner of the Derby has been priced 7-1 or shorter
All of the last ten winners of the Derby came from the first three in the betting
Thirteen of the last 15 Derby winners won two of their last three starts
The last 20 Derby winners were no worse than second on their previous start
Fourteen of the last 15 Derby winners were no worse than second on their last two starts
Nine of the last 27 Derby winners were drawn in stall, ten including Ruler of The World last year.
Workforce was the first Derby winner to be defeated in the Dante (Arod & True Story)
Andre Fabre the trainer of Flintshire has won the Coronation Cup six times from just 16 previous runners
Cirrus Des Aigles has won over £5million in prize money. He has landed five Group Ones and won 20 of his 57 races
Since 1944 French challengers have won the Coronation Cup 19 times
Eight of the last ten winners of the Coronation Cup had finished no worse than second on their last start
Seven of the last ten winners of the Investec Dash have been five or older
Thirteen of the last 15 ‘Dash’ winners have been drawn in stall 8 or higher
Last year was the first time in ten years the favourite had obliged in the Dash
Seven of the last ten winners of the Woodcote came from the first three in the betting