Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Wednesday 18th June 2014

Racing UK

Lantern to light the way for Hannon on day two

Let’s get straight down to business with my thoughts for day two at Royal Ascot.  I can’t wait to see Treve on these shores. She has crossed my horizon since her first run at Longchamp on September 22 - my father missed my birthday that weekend as his job meant he had to be at the French racetrack yet, what a present it was when as soon as she crossed the line he texted to say I should put this filly in my NagMe account! 

Treve is 8-11 at the time of typing but what I can’t comprehend is why The Fugue is so big at 9-1! Surely if all eight stand their ground that is a fabulous each-way price.

After hopefully collecting on The Fugue on the each-ways, it is then on to the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and Sky Lantern

Like her stable companion Toronado in the Queen Anne Stakes she has to return from a break but not such a lengthy one at 192 days. 

She does also have to concede weight all-round but after Toronado’s performance I doubt much is going to hold her back. 

She has already beaten Intergral, she’s a veteran of eight Group Ones, including winning the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes last year.  With Richard Hughes in top form what is there not to like?

Betfair - Money Back if SP Fav Wins in 1st Race Each Day

Then comes my favourite race of the week, the Royal Hunt Cup. I adore this cavalry charge and the difficulty of the puzzle put before us.

I thought the answer was clear as day on Lockinge Day at Newbury with Chil The Kite. He won over seven furlongs in a stroll, 12 months ago he was lining up in the Queen Anne Stakes – a Group One no less, and on Wednesday he steps down in class. 

Obviously a huge dose of respect has to be paid to Abseil, after he charged home at Epsom and that’s why he must be included in my combination forecast, which will also include Stirring Ballad, who 12 months ago was favourite for the event and hasn’t run since.  He has the ability to rectify that little hiccup. 

Finally, having been self-elected as the chairman of the Edward Lynam fan club, I have to flag up his two runners; Anthem Alexander in the Queen Mary Stakes and Odisseia in the Sandringham Handicap. 

Odisseia came good at Navan last time and after Sole Power’s win in the King’s Stand the stable looks spot on and definitely one to follow.

Day one at Royal Ascot was not the best for bookmakers, but as I wrote in my blog there would be no sympathy in this quarter when at best prices for Kingman and Night Of Thunder to win you could have had 2-5 coupled.  I hope a lesson was learned.  I guess bookmakers are smarting, there is some sympathy to those who graft day in, day out on course through all weathers as this meeting is pivotal to their year, but the big high street boys try to entice you in only to whinge after the event once they are stung. 

Wins for Toronado, Kingman and Hootenanny made it a fantastic day for punters and the biggest bet on course was £12000 to £10000 on Kingman, with a few £3000 bets on him.

I then caught wind of £5,000 each-way on Domination, the 12-1 Ascot Stakes winner.  Other horses worth keeping an eye on are Verrazano, who was a huge drifter on Betfair before he ran a blinder to be second in the Queen Anne Stakes. Kool Kompany shortened from 8-1 to 6-1 while the last couple were going in stalls before he was 12th in the Coventry. 

If you watch the replays, see how well Kodi Bear ran in the Coventry Stakes and War Command ran in the St James’s Palace

The most alarming matter for me was the fact there was only nine bookmakers on the traditional rails, when normally there are 20+.  The opening of many more betting areas has fragmented the ring.  But where there was once four lines of bookmakers in Tattersalls, now stands only two lines. 

I know it could be argued those two lines have been stretched but even so it did leave a gaping void in the middle and business was reported to be very quiet.

My Channel 4 colleague Brian Gleeson and I ventured down to the walkout area where now ten bookmakers stand.  They are able to bet the old fashioned way, and all I say in some instances punters should shop around and find better value. 

With value in mind I’ve find 9-1 about The Fugue with Ladbrokes and 4-1 Sky Lantern also with the Magic Sign. I’ve also nibbled at the 33-1 available in the Duke Of Cambridge about Kenhope, another who has been to Ascot before when chasing home Sky Lantern in the Coronation Stakes in 2013

Finally as a really silly left field bet I have backed Miracle Of Medinah.

Tanya Stevenson’s Wednesday tips:

4.25 Royal Ascot: Sky Lantern at 4-1 with Ladbrokes

5.00 Royal Ascot: Chil The Kite at 18-1 with William Hill (+ Abseil & Stirring Ballad in comb forecast)

5.35 Royal Ascot: Odisseia at 12-1 with William Hill

Tanya Stevenson's pointers:

2.30 JERSEY STAKES:

Since 2000 there have been two winning favourites, both trained by Aidan O’Brien

(2001 Mozart and 2013 Gale Force Ten).

Eight of the last 12 winners finished either first or second on their most recent start.

Seven of the last 12 winners had run in a Group One.

Nine of the last ten winners had won over no further than the race’s distance of seven furlongs.

Nine of the last ten had run no more than three times in the current season prior to Ascot

A quirky stat is that the horse emerging from stall eight has finished second five times in the last 12 years

3.05 QUEEN MARY STAKES

Seven of the last ten winners had previously run in at least Listed class

Nine of the last 12 winners came from the first five in the betting

Since 2000 all of the winners had finished no worse than second on their previous start

Since 2000 12 of the winners had won on their most recent start

Since 2000 nine of the winners had won on their racecourse debut

Since 2000 ten of the winners had raced no more than twice previously

3.45 PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES

Frankie Dettori is attempting his fourth win in the race

Six of the nine winners were trained overseas

Since 2000 all but Nayef in 2003 came from the first three in the betting

Since this race was elevated to Group One in 2000 12 of the 14 winners had previously landed at least one Group One

Nine of the last 14 winners won on their most recent start

Twelve of the last 14 winners finished in the first two on their most recent start

Five of the last 14 winners had taken in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh

Biggest priced winner since the race was made a Group One in 2000 was 8-1

4.25 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

Eight of the ten winners had run no more than twice in a season.

Seven of the last ten winners had previously run at Royal Ascot.

Eight of the ten winners had finished no worse than third on their prior start.

Nine of the ten winners had won a Group race.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times.

All the ten winners came from the first five in the betting.

5.00 ROYAL HUNT CUP

Eight of the last ten winners raced no more than three times in the current season.

Belgian Bill last year is the only winner since 2004 to have previously run in the race.

Seven of the last ten winners of the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot were drawn 25 or higher.

Nine of the last ten Ascot winner’s of the Royal Hunt Cup were drawn in double-figure stalls.

Only four winners since 1984 were aged above five.

Since 1960 only one winner older than six (1969 Kamundu).

Since 1960 only four winning favourites.

5.35 SANDRINGHAM H’CAP first run in 2002

Ten of the twelve winners finished no worse than fourth on their most recent start.

Ten of the twelve winners came from the first five in the betting.

Seven of the twelve winners had run in at least Listed class.

Eleven of the 12 winners had run no more than 3 times in their current campaign.

Richard Kingscote has ridden the winner twice in the last three years.

William Hill