Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Saturday 20th September 2014|
Let’s Rally behind Dods’ Ayr runner
We secured a profit last week with Kingston Hill winning the St Leger and it would have been so much better had Australia won in Ireland by a margin of less than two and a half lengths, a result that would have landed our 13-8 bet.
Unfortunately Joseph O'Brien opted for the scenic route and that was that. There is no point in sugar coating the whole thing. It was a shocking ride and Australia should have won.
Unfortunately he was ridden as if he would win under any circumstance. It was, if you like, a ride that oozed the utmost confidence in the horse's ability, but it was a poor one and no other interpretation carries any validity.
In years gone by when beer was cheaper the way to snaffle a few quid so you could afford said beer was to be against the crowd.
Now with the increased accuracy of the markets thanks to the exchanges it is often more profitable to be with the crowd than against it.
No longer do we look to jump off bandwagons but rather want to climb aboard at any cost.
Thus horses racing up the stands rail in the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup and Silver Cup will be overbet on Saturday, and with good reason.
All the evidence of the meeting suggests that you need to be hard against that stands' rail and horses close to it will be popular.
This means there there could be some value to small stakes backing a horse who will look to hug the far rail, a route that has not been properly explored yet.
That said, I think that Mass Rally is a classy sprinter who would have gone very close at York two starts ago, but for suffering interference.
He then ran in a Listed contest at York where he fluffed the start and saw way too much daylight.
I get the feeling today's race has always been the plan and a big field sprint suits this strong traveller really well.
He should be backed each-way.
Angus McNae's Saturday tip:
3.50 Ayr: Mass Rally each-way at 16-1 with Paddy Power