Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Saturday 27th December 2014

Racing UK

Conti winnings no match for car deficit

Bookmakers were left with bloody noses at Kempton on Boxing Day as a string of favourites came in. There were endless payout queues and empty satchels there. It’s a wonder they’ll be back for Saturday!

Both Faugheen and Silviniaco Conti came, saw and conquered.

It appeared that Noel Fehily carried out a King George plan to precision.  Able to dictate and dominate from the off, he then seized the initiative and injected the crucial burst of pace between the third and second from home. 

Faugheen
© Caroline Norris

Faugheen
Faugheen is scary. Everything asked has been answered, and it was the manner he had those rivals off the bridle so far from home.  Blue Heron set a lightning quick pace and ran a corker, all things considered. So too Purple Bay, who sensibly coasted home in second. 

Reaction to Faugheen’s victory brought in huge disparity in prices from the major bookmakers. As short as Evens for the Champion Hurdle with Coral and Stan James, 5-4 generally, yet yesterday Ladbrokes were quite happy at 7-4. 

Faugheen has to date been kept clear of The New One, or indeed Jezki and Hurricane Fly.  Challengers beyond those three seem scarce so is 7-4 too big, probably.

A lot of schoolboy errors in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase left Coneygree forty lengths clear of just two other finishers and a 14-1 quote for the RSA Chase

Across at Leopardstown the defeats of Kalkir in the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle and Vautour in the Racing Post Novice Chase left plenty to ponder. The manner of Clarcam’s saunter left the feeling that maybe Gordon Elliott’s runner wasn’t getting the recognition he was due. 

One observation was the gloomy conditions for the runners in the King George and Kempton’s last race.  It wasn’t the best or brightest of days and as the weather closed in the going across the country is bound to deteriorate so the conditions will be stamina sapping.

Golden Doyen is the apple of my eye after prevailing in his battle against Hargam at Cheltenham.  He goes for Grade One glory at Chepstow so fingers crossed.

In the Coral Welsh Grand National I’ve gone for Monbeg Dude and Mountainous, both previous winners with the former the bigger bet. 

Alan King will be hoping the rain really does pour for Chatez, who is two from two over hurdles and creeps in at the bottom of the weights in Kempton’s last race. 

I can relay to you a sorry, but all but familiar tale.  I arrived at Kempton resigned to the fact I had started the day a few hundred quid out of pocket.  The trials and tribulations I have had with my vehicle are legendary amongst friends and family, yet stubbornness won’t let me be beaten. 

At silly o’clock the little darling decided that a warm and cosy garage was more attractive than a journey to Sunbury-on-Thames.  So not only did the pockets get turned inside out for a cab, but whatever has stricken the car this time will cost to put right.  The aged licence plate doesn’t tell the tale, as underneath the bodywork I feel the vehicle has been rebuilt piece by piece.

Having backed Silviniaco Conti for the King George since Haydock and again on the morning of the race, it softens a costly blow. Here’s hoping today’s selections can alleviate the deficit even further.

Tanya Stevenson’s Saturday tips:

1.55 Chepstow: Golden Doyen

3.25 Kempton: Chatez

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers: 

2.35 CHEPSTOW - CORAL WELSH NATIONAL:

Eight of the last 10 winners finished no worse than second on their most recent run.

All last ten winners were no older than eight.

Since 1983 only two horses older than nine have won.

Over the last 30 years Bonanza Boy is the only horse to win the race twice 1988 & 1989.

Carvill’s Hill was the last horse to carry top weight to victory in 1991.

Only one of the last ten favourites have won.

Since 1993 only four horses have carried 11st or more to victory.

Only two of the last ten winners had run more than twice previously in the current campaign.

2.00 CHEPSTOW - CORAL.CO.UK FUTURE CHAMPIONS FINALE JUVENILE HURDLE:

Nine of the last ten winners finished no worse than second on their most recent run.

Only two of the last ten favourites have won, Hollow Tree in 2011 & Franchoek 2007.

Five of the last ten winners had run in at least a Grade 2 Hurdle including Le Rocher last year.

Three of the last nine winners were making their British Debut – 2013, 2005, 2006.

3.10 CHEPSTOW - CORAL.CO.UK BEST PRICE GUARANTEED ON HORSE RACING HANDICAP CHASE:

Eight of the last ten winners were older than eight. 

Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting.

Venetia Williams is attempting to win the race for a third year running and Renard in consecutive years.

Renard has never finished out of the first three in his five starts at Chepstow winning three of them.

Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting. 

1.40 KEMPTON - WILLIAMHILL.COM DESERT ORCHID CHASE:

Three of the seven winners went on to win the Champion Chase Voy Por Ustedes, Finian’s Rainbow and Sire De Grugy

Five of the seven winners had run in the Tingle Creek in the previous race

Five of the seven favourites have won

2.15 KEMPTON - WILLIAM HILL - BET ON THE MOVE HANDICAP CHASE:

Loose Chips has won three of his five starts at Kempton including two on Boxing Day 

2.55 LEOPARDSTOWN, SUNDAY - LEXUS CHASE:

Paul Nicholls has won the race three times from six raiders.

Jonjo O’Neill has won the race with both his challengers and relies on Holywell.

 Willie Mullins last 13 runners have all been beaten.

British challengers have won the race seven times in the last ten years.