Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Tuesday 14th June 2016|
A Shin Hikari among five horses to lay at Royal Ascot
It's time again to oppose five horses at Royal Ascot and hopefully help yield a profit at the meeting. All of my lays are favourites and, in my opinion, are vulnerable for a variety of reasons.
Tepin (generally 7-2)
Let's start at the beginning with the Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday, in which we should be laying Tepin. This American raider is a class act in the States. She is a Breeders’ Cup winner and is very talented. However, she is racing without Lasix and nasal strips, and is facing a straight mile for the first time. She is used to racing around a bend where getting a breather is vital for her to produce her late kick. She can't do that over a straight mile, where the rhythm of racing is so different. In essence, this is an alien test for her and I reckon it will catch her out. Lay her in the win and place market on the exchanges.
2. The Gurkha (6-4)
In the St James's Palace Stakes, later on the opening day card, I cannot have The Gurkha at a short price. He was an impressive winner of the French 2000 Guineas but what did he beat? The French three-year-old colts are a modest bunch and although he won well he still has loads to prove in a race that contains two other Guineas winners, whose form amounts to a good deal more than what The Gurkha has achieved. For what it's worth, Awtaad is surely a good thing to win this after his easy Irish Guineas win in which he beat Galileo Gold, the 2000 Guineas winner. The Gurkha is good but, from what we have seen so far, not good enough. Lay him in the win market on the exchanges.
A Shin Hikari (6-5)
A Shin Hikari is apparently a certainty in Wednesday’s Prince of Wales's Stakes on the back of his easy win in the Prix D'Ispahan at Chantilly. If he repeats that effort he will win, more likely though he will bounce. He ran hard at Chantilly in a fast time in heavy ground and he will have been hard trained since then. His Prince of Wales's Stakes was sacrificed to an impressive win in France and it will be more than remarkable if he can repeat the effort. Lay him in the win market only.
Global Applause (5-2)
Global Applause will be favourite for Thursday’s Norfolk Stakes on the back of his win at Sandown last time. However, surely at Sandown he rode the Golden Highway to eternal wealth against the far rail and that conferred him a considerable advantage. He had his limitations exposed in his previous effort at Newbury and with the easy ground possibly against him he has to be opposed. Lay him in the win market on the exchanges.
Finally, we should be laying Exosphere in the Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday. He was impressive on his winning return at Newmarket but he but he beat a one-paced stayer in Simple Verse and his time and sectionals were far from exceptional. This victory was a classic case of the visual impression of his success being somewhat misleading, with substance in his performance clearly lacking. What's more he clearly has something of a high head carriage, which is somewhat disconcerting. In essence he had not shown enough to warrant his place at the head of the market here. Lay him in the win market on the exchanges.