Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Wednesday 20th August 2014|
Hill will find Moore with Ryan
The York Ebor meeting is a magnificent event. The action is anything but mundane and the atmosphere at the course is second to none. However, what does it take to win here and what are the main characteristics of his track?
For a start it is galloping in nature and has always favored horses who have good basic speed enabling them to obtain decent early positions. Horses can win from off the pace when the gallop is furious but the key to success by and large is a decent prominent position. A handy pitch in a race does not mean that jockeys need to kick for home too soon. As at every track a well timed challenge is the key to success, with this in mind here are two jockeys for whom statistical evidence proves their worth at this track.
Ryan Moore has a 21% strike rate here which is simply outstanding. Kieran Fallon is next best with 16%. After them both Paul Hanagan and Jamie Spencer at 13% are worth keeping an eye on. It is of little surprise that the world class Ryan Moore is miles better than everybody else here and he can be followed this week with confidence.
It always helps if these high percentage jockeys are allied to high percentage trainers and thus they are worth highlighting as well. At 24% William Haggas is simply miles better than the rest here. David O Meara at 12% and Kevin Ryan at 11% are worth keeping an eye on as well. Of course the Richard Fahey runners will be well talked up this week due to the high percentage of performers he has at the track, but note his win strike rate is just 8% here.
Thus if you fancy a William Haggas trained runner this week ridden by Ryan Moore you will not be far wrong.
What about the track itself? There is little doubt that some horses simply do not act here. This is because the sandy nature of the track means they just cannot get a purchase on it and for want of a better expression they wheel spin. Others absolutely love it. It would be to simplify the whole debate if we allied this track to Polytrack but there is a link between horses that act on sand and act well here, but there is no conclusive link which means it is merely a factor that should be taken into consideration rather than relied on.
Right let's smash into profit this week as we did at Glorious Goodwood. My first selection is Mass Rally in the opener and he should be backed each way. He loves York. All of his best form has come here and he ran an absolute blinder in better company here when he was fourth to Maarek. With plenty of pace signed on in this race he will be suited by how things pan out and carrying top weight in a handicap, in effect bullying inferiors is where he wants to be. He should give us a solid start even if he is just placed.
Secondly I am taking a chance with Kingston Hill in the Great Voltigeur. He had no chance in the Eclipse given how he was ridden and how the race panned out. Now Ryan Moore gets on him for the first time and that could make all the difference. Many will want to oppose him given his form on easier ground, but he handled quick ground in the Derby when second to Australia and that is a stand out piece of form in this race. He should be backed to win as Moore will probably make all the difference.
Let's hope for a good start to the meeting, but it's all about where we are at the end of the week not just the end of the day.
1.55 York - Mass Rally ( each way)
3.05 York - Kingston Hill