Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Wednesday 7th December 2016|
My Tent Or Yours makes no appeal
This is the first of a new series of columns in which at this time every week I will look ahead to the weekend action and identify horses that I believe are worth opposing.
I am not planning on pulling my punches. Look away now if you believe in punditry from the school of every horse has got a chance.
As talented as he is, he must be opposed in the win market on the exchanges. Here's my reasoning.
1. He just does not win these days. He has been placed the last six times we have seen him but his last win over hurdles was almost three years ago.
2. He wants to race too fiercely. He always seems to pull hard these days, meaning he is not seeing his races out properly. His class still gets him in the money but his finishing efforts are weak.
3. His first run of the season at Haydock was tame. A lack of pace and soft ground did not help but once again he finished weakly. He might have needed the run but even so this was not the performance of a horse who is going to win the International Hurdle on his next outing.
4. He needs a strong gallop to help him settle but the race is devoid of pace. There is no confirmed front runner in the line-up, indeed most of the ten entered are ridden patiently. The New One might make it but I can't see him blazing off in front and causing a pace meltdown, which is what My Tent Or Yours wants.
1. The ground will not be soft enough for him. He has a tremendous record on soft and heavy ground and he needs those conditions to give of his best. When he won the BetVictor the going was officially good to soft but times on the day suggested it was softer. With hardly any rain forecast between now and Saturday, Simon Claisse is talking about watering. Taquin Du Seuil will surely find conditions to be too quick.
2. The Paddy Power Gold Cup was the target. A nice prep run over hurdles at Chepstow prepared him ideally for that big race. Now to quote connections " there aren't many opportunities for a horse rated as high as him so he will take his chance" in other words this was not part of the master plan but given his rating and despite drying ground they will give it a go. As a punter this hardly fills me with confidence. On the contrary it makes me want to oppose the horse.
3. Surely if he is struggling in the ground his jockey will look after him and this is why laying him in the place market is the way forward. Watch him gallop and see how hard he hits the ground, there is no way the horse will be given a really hard time to slog it out for third or fourth risking injury.
4. The Handicapper gave him a chance off 156 last time but surely a big run off a mark of 161 is asking too much. He has never won off a Handicap off a mark this high and to do so he would have to have conditions in his favour and be at the very top of his game.
Something for the Weekend:
Lay My Tent Or Yours in the win market on the exchanges.
Lay Taquin Du Seuil in the place market on the exchanges.