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Sussex Stakes 10-Year-Trends
26/07/10

The Sussex Stakes is one of two group 1 races that take place during the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 28th July. It’s the highlight of Wednesday’s card and could see last year’s winner Rip Van Winkle take on the St James Palace Stakes winner, Canford Cliffs.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Rip Van Winkle
© racing-images.co.uk

Rip Van Winkle

Age (Winners-Placed-Runners)
3yo: 6-9-37
4yo: 1-5-30
5yo: 2-1-11
6yo+: 1-2-8
6 of 10 winners were aged 3 and they have also filled 15 of 27 places from just 43% of the runners.
Of the 4 horses aged 4+ to win this, 3 finished in the first 2 in the Queen Anne.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run between 3 and 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (two exceptions had finished 2nd and 3rd in a group 1 over 1M-1M2F)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won a group 3, one had yet to run in group 1, the other two had finished 2nd & 3rd in group 1 company)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season

Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Rip Van Winkle): 522 (0-2-3)
St James Palace Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 1314521 (3-2-7)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Canford Cliffs): 3151 (2-1-4)
Previous season’s Coventry winner (Canford Cliffs): 21 (1-1-2)
Previous season’s Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 1 (1-0-1)
Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 66 (0-0-2)
Prix Jean Prat winner (Dick Turpin): 45 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 1211
4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2114
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53
4 of 6 winners aged 3 finished 1st or 2nd in the St James Palace Stakes
3 of 4 winners aged 4+ finished 1st or 2nd in the Queen Anne Stakes

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-4-19) has won the race 4 times in the past 10 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, though he has only saddled one older horse (Bach 7th in 2001). His first strings have a record of 4-4-10.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-9) has won the race twice in the past decade.
Richard Hannon (1-1-6) has gained 1 win, 1 second and 3 thirds from his 6 runners since 2000.

Price
9 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 15/2 or below.
Favourites (4-4-11) have a fair record in this race having won it 4 times in the last 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 2.52.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3
• Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted highest RPR
• Run 3 to 5 times in 2010
• Run in last 55 days
• Won over a mile
• Won a group 1
• Finished in the first two at Royal Ascot (St James Palace or Queen Anne)
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien
• From first 4 in the betting (15/2 or lower)

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