past winners

grand national 2007 /

Codebreaker Points to Point Barrow 14/04/07

The John Smith’s Grand National is the most famous jump race in the world, annually attracting a worldwide audience of over 600 million people.

It is also the most valuable jump race run in Britain by some way, with a total prize fund of £700,000 - nearly double the next most valuable race.

This year will see the 160th running of the famous Aintree chase, and Codebreaker will whittle down the 40-runner field to just one horse, by following a series of race trends.

When romping home in 2005, Hedgehunter became only the second horse since 1984 to carry more than 11st to victory in the National, after Rhyme ‘N’ Reason shouldered 11st exactly when winning in 1988.

Therefore, with 20 of the last 22 winners carrying less than 11st, we immediately say goodbye to Hedgehunter, a gallant second last year under 11st 12lb, and who must shoulder the same burden again this year.

We also lose last year’s hero Numbersixvalverde, allotted 11st 3lb - 9lb more than when successful 12 months ago - along with Eurotrek, L’Ami, Monkerhostin, Thisthatandtother, Billyvoddan, Idle Talk, Royal Auclair and Cloudy Bays.

Since 1984, the only winners of the National to be younger than nine years of age were the eight-year-olds Bindaree in 2002 and Party Politics in 1992.

All of the other 20 winners during this period were aged between nine and 12 - as a result we omit from calculations the eight-year-olds Celtic Son, Simon, Gallant Approach, Dun Doire, Slim Pickings, Bothar Na, Liberthine, Mckelvey, Naunton Brook and Le Duc.

Of the last 20 National winners, 13 had been successful earlier in the campaign at least once.

Jack High - not successful this season
© racing-images.co.uk

We can therefore dismiss from the reckoning Ballycassidy, Clan Royal, Livingstonebramble, Zabenz, Bewleys Berry, Graphic Approach, Silver Birch, Philson Run, Tikram and Jack High - all of whom are yet to taste success this season.

Miinnehoma, who took the spoils in 1994, was unusual for a National winner, in only having had two runs previously that season - indeed 19 of the last 20 winners had all had between four and nine runs earlier in the campaign.

Therefore we overlook the chances of Joes Edge, the best-backed horse in the race in recent weeks, who has raced only three times this term. Kandjar D’Allier has also had just three runs and is dismissed, along with Longshanks, successful on his only run this season.

A sound jumper is essential in the National - 16 of the last 20 winners had not fallen or unseated that season. Numbersixvalverde was unluckily brought down prior to his Aintree success and is not included as a faller, and the same applies to Point Barrow this year.

As a result, we lose Knowhere and Homer Wells who have both hit the deck this term.

Despite the competitiveness of the National, huge-price winners are rare. In the past 20 renewals, only four horses - Red Marauder (33/1), Royal Athlete (40/1), Little Polveir (28/1) and Maori Venture (28/1) - have returned at odds bigger than 20/1.

For that reason, we lose The Outlier, Sonevafushi and Puntal who are all priced at 33/1 and upwards for this year’s Grand National.

Codebreaker has now narrowed it down to a straight choice between Kelami, trained in France by Francois Doumen, and Point Barrow, in the care of Pat Hughes in Ireland.

Both sport a similar profile - nine-year-olds carrying 10st 12lb - and each has scored already this term.

The last French-trained winner of the John Smith’s Grand National was Cortolvin in 1867, while Irish-trained runners have taken the prize five times in the last eight years.

Therefore POINT BARROW, who boasts a progressive profile and looks sure to be suited by the race conditions, is the Codebreaker selection.