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epsom derby festival 2012/

 

Epsom Derby Trends
21/05/12

The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 2nd June and this year’s race will see Camelot look to emulate the achievement of Sea The Stars in 2009, by winning both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.

Camelot
© Caroline Norris

Camelot

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-10-74
British bred: 3-7-49
American bred: 1-3-17
German bred: 0-0-2
French bred: 0-0-5
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
4 of 10 winners by a sire that’d won or placed in English or Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who’d finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Progeny of Montjeu (3-2-19) have won 3 of the last 10 while progeny of Galileo (1-2-14) have won the race just once from 14 representatives.

Dosage Profile
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.18
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.224

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in the Dante Stakes)
9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn’t run in a group 1 as a juvenile)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of 9 at a group 1 track)
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 39 times before winning the race. In those 39 starts they had finished outside first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on first run as 2yo.

2yo Races
Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 106116 (3-0-6)
Dewhurst winner (Parish Hall): 11 (2-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Mandaean): 0926 (0-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh

3yo Races
Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 391101203 (3-3-9)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Kesampour): 51 (1-0-2)
2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 01 (1-0-2)
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 247011045 (2-1-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Astrology): 15080 (1-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Mikdaam): 566054502 (0-1-9)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 804093670 (0-1-9)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 800 (0-0-3)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Imperial Monarch): 0400 (0-0-4)
4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221

Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-9-91
Irish-trained runners: 3-10-49
French-trained runners: 1-1-7
Michael Stoute (3-2-9) has won the race 3 times since 2002 but has no runner this year.
Aidan O’Brien (1-8-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since 2003 has managed just 7 places from 36 runners.
Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
John Dunlop (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
The other 3 winners all tracked the leader(s).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
• Montjeu’s progeny do well
• Born before 07/04/2009
• Dosage index of around 1.18
• Centre of Distribution of around 0.22
• Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
• Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
• Run once or twice in 2012
• Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
• Had run in the past 35 days
• Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
• Posted an RPR of 118+ last time
• Previously on a group race
• Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
• Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
• Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
• Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as 3yo
• Priced 6/1 or below


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