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TANYA'S BLOG - 17th APRIL 2010

Coral Scottish Grand National day at Ayr, more Classic trials at Newbury what a day in prospect. Shame that flight disruption may spoil the crowd at Ayr but I’ve had many emails from gallant travellers who took the decision to drive up either Thursday or yesterday and let’s hope you’ll be rewarded by backing plenty of winners.

Canford Cliffs
© racing-images.co.uk

At Newbury the poser is do you back or lay Canford Cliffs? I would just watch the race as 8-11 isn’t value to back but I can’t see him being beaten, Bullwhip would be a big challenger but may lack the experience. However, I would want to take on Lady Of The Desert, no surprise Barry Bismarked it, my fancy for the race is the tenacious Puff who looked to be running on better at the finish of the Cheveley Park Stakes.

Spring Cup and stick with those drawn high. Cityscape is Pricewise and a few of you emailed in to say you actually got the 20-1, congratulations to Betfred and Coral who were the bookmakers in question. Cityscape is 12-1 at the time of writing and could well shrink to 8-1 or even challenge for favouritism. Credit Swap is being nibbled with Victor Chandler at 25-1 and looking at the connections I think that is more significant than the Pricewise horse, although I fancy them both. Clowance could go well in the John Porter Stakes at 2pm so a possible blinding day for Roger Charlton.

Now then in the Scottish National I can’t fancy the front two but this is just the race Idle Talk make a bold show in, at 66-1 he is massive and has had a lighter campaign avoiding both Aintree and Cheltenham plus he has a light weight. Scots Dragoon can also be thereabouts, David Bass allowance means all he will be carrying is 9-7 and my hopes which in present form is like carrying 14stone, but ever positive I think all could change today.

TANYA’S POINTERS

Seven of the last eight winners of the Coral Scottish National have carried 10-9 or less

Since 1995 89 horses have worn either blinkers, visors or cheekpieces in the Coral Scottish National, all have been beaten

Only two of the last ten winners of the Coral Scottish National had run at that seasons Cheltenham Festival. (3 Razor Royale, 5 Mobaasher, 6 Faasel, 8 Theatrical Moment, 10 Poker De Sivola, 17 Ma Yahab all ran at Cheltenham Festival this year)

The last 42 9-year-olds to run in the Coral Scottish National have all been beaten

Of the last 35 7-year-olds to run in the Coral Scottish National only one has won

Paul Nicholls last 20 runners in the Scottish National have all been beaten but in that ten year period he has trained the runner-up four times

Phillip Hobbs last 12 runners in the Scottish National have all been beaten but he has had three thirds, and two fourths

Ferdy Murphy has won the Coral Scottish National three times in the last nine years – Paris Pike 2000, Joes Edge 2005 and Hot Weld 2007

The last nine favourites have been beaten in the Scottish National, five of which failed to complete the course

The last eight winners Newbury’s (2.35) Spring Mile were drawn in double-figure stalls

Eight of the last nine favourites have been beaten in Newbury’s 2.35pm

Mick Channon has trained four of the last eight winners of the Dubai Duty Free Stakes Newbury’s 3.05

Richard Hannon has trained three of the last eight winners of the Greenham Stakes Newbury’s 3.40