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Captain's Blog - 3rd July 2010

The figures told us it would happen, there was no need to rack your brains with collateral form nonsense or to worry about the effects of a 6lb penalty, no the speed figure of 116 that Stotsfold ran when winning last time was miles better than anything his rivals had achieved, the figure told us he was way ahead of this group. He was carrying a six pound penalty for his win in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes and that put many people off and made the price a bit jucier. The penalty was irrelevant though because he had proved already that he could run much faster than this group by some way. This is not hindsight or after timing from me because he was our number one selection here on the Blog at 9/2 but it is a perfect illustration of the value of speed figures. Whilst traditionalists spend valuable time musing over whether he could win under a penalty, the figures told us he could, full stop end of argument. Of course this is a clear cut example and not all races are as clear cut, but for figures players like myself this was a sweet deal.

Some sweet offerings are no doubt on offer again today, but to be honest having got home from the office at 10.00am and had a bit of a lie in I am miles off the pace this morning. I am tempted to take it easy on the punting front and simply back the Argentinians to beat the Germans in the quarter final of the World Cup. I thought they would be odds on to oblige but at 11/8 they are surely a decent bet. The reason I like them is that they want to win and in Diego Maradonna they have a manager who is able to motivate them to a greater degree than any other coach in the tournament. Yes the Germans are a useful outfit, but beating England proved nothing and I suspect that layers are over estimating them.

The Coral - Eclipse today does not inspire me at all. Six runners go to post and for me there is no edge to be found at all. I mused yesterday on the chances of Sri Putra getting an easy lead and causing an upset. That could happen, but in short the race does not inspire me to turn my computer on. I have had a look at the Old Newton Cup though and like one horse. Hanoverian Baron. The Baron is a progressive handicapper with a decent figure to his name last time at York and there could be more to come. He is well found in the market though and is no bargain at 9/2, nonetheless he will go well. It is a shame Red Cadeaux does not run, he is one to look out for in the next few weeks.

I have to go to Homebase now, not the ideal start to a Saturday, but there is a van in the car park there that does bacon sarnies, every cloud has a silver lining.

Have a great weekend.

Today’s Selections

3.25 Haydock – Hanoverian Baron (each way 9/2 Sky Bet)

4.00 Haydock – Sunraider (each way 6/1 Sportingbet)