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Captain's Blog - 25th October 2010

Good Morning everybody. I trust you are all fit and well after the weekend. I must apologise for the late posting of the blog on Saturday. We had some technical problems with the site that meant the Blog was not posted until the afternoon. It was probably not a bad thing because my selections were rubbish and would have only cost you a few quid. We did have a good week though and I am hoping to continue the good work today.

In a couple of hours I will be setting off for the studio where I am in the booth this afternoon helping out with the coverage from Kempton. Yes more all weather action for you today, such is the frequency of the action from the Sunbury venue it seems as if they race there every day but I can assure you it is usually only three or four times a week. I will also be presenting the Wednesday night coverage from there with Richard Hoiles as my guest. I have been striving to find some decent punting angles at Kempton of late. I have looked at the draw and whether any track bias exists, I have also looked at the importance of being ridden prominently as opposed to being held up and to be honest I have not found anything that you cannot work out for yourselves.

Then on Saturday night working with Dave Nevison it occurred to me that I have been barking up the wrong tree. For track bias, draw advantage and positional advantage substitute the market. Yes keep it simple and watch the market and you will not go far wrong. The market these days is so reliable that horses who are well supported seem to always run big races. Indeed the market these days is very accurate, and although following the market means you have to ditch the outdated notion of value, it will mean that you have a fair bit of success. If a horse is well supported and after glancing at the form book you cannot work out why, do not worry about it, the horse is probably going to run a big race. The advent of exchanges has made the markets very astute, and at Kempton they seem to always find the right horses. All I can say about Kempton today is that you may be able to save yourself a fair bit of time today if you close the form book and sit yourself in front of Betfair, it will be the best guide to which horses are going to run well. I am sure some of you will disagree and will say that drifters in the market do win, yes that is true but at Kempton they are a rare commodity.

I am contemplating cycling to work today although I am somewhat undecided on this course of action. The reason I am a little hesitant is the fact that it is a bit chilly out there and I am hardly feeling full of energy at the moment, but an hour or so on the bike would certainly clear the cobwebs away. I will have another cup of tea before making my mind up. At the moment I would make it even money each of two and there are currently very few clues in the market.

I hope you have a great start to the week.

Today's Selections

5:30 Leicester – Toby Tyler – (each way 9/2 Victor Chandler )