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Tanya's Blog - 15th January 2011

The countdown begins for Kauto Star and cars were parking in the centre of the course as early as 8am. William Hill girls were at the ready from around 8.30am with complimentary diaries. Quite what the size of crowd will be is uncertain but I think it will be nearer 5,000 than not. The press room is buzzing, Graham Dench is busy typing, Lee Motteshead is in discussion with photographers Julian Herbert and Ed Whitaker. John Hunt is enjoying a coffee before his big call for Radio 5 Live. What an effort by the race reader yesterday to spot the conditionals taking the wrong course at Huntingdon.

Checking the market movers through last night and this morning Ski Sunday was the most prominent of those that hadn’t been tipped up by Pricewise. He runs in the 1.20 and comes off a long layoff and is Nick Luck’s charity bet. Other movers include The Betchworth Kid who is pricewise and Nadiya De La Vega. Of those on the drift I wouldn’t want to be Sybarite who was out to 7-1 this morning. Nacarat and Forpadydeplasterer have always been weak in the King George market and I wouldn’t really call them negatives as those who want to bet want to side with Kauto Star.

My selections for the day are extreme, nothing unusual there. Escort’men in the Christmas Hurdle as Overturn will lead and in fairness that could be all the way. Starluck will be hovering and has to time his run perfectly and Binocular will be watching Starluck. Khyber Kim returns from a long layoff and may need the race. So Escort’men who will love the going and will just run his race seems the best option at the prices.

Kauto Star for me in the King George, if you want an alternative it would be Riverside Theatre for me, a course specialist who won’t mind the step up in trip. My other selection is Chief Yeoman in the Lanzarote Hurdle. By the time it gets to that race the course will be churned up and you need experience of the conditions and Chief Yeoman has won a big handicap at Sandown, he carries no weight which is a bonus in testing conditions and Venetia Williams has won this race in the past also.

Warwick is on which is great news and good luck to Tom and Kerry Lee with Le Beau Bai in the big race. Finally he gets his conditions and is rightly favourite.

POINTERS

Nicky Henderson has had six winners from his last 11 chase runners. Overall the trainer has had 12 winners, a second and seven thirds from his last 25 runners

Eight of the last ten Christmas Hurdle winners won on their previous start

Six of the last ten winners of the Christmas Hurdle had run no worse than third in the Fighting Fifth that season at Newcastle

Nine of the last ten winners of the Christmas Hurdle was aged five or six

The favourite has won the last six King George VI Chases

Kauto Star and Riverside Theatre both have 100% strike rates at Kempton having won all four of their races at the course

Kauto Star is attempting his fifth consecutive King George VI Chase

Fourteen of the last 17 winners of the King George had won on their previous start

Over the past 20 years six horses have won the King George more than once

Paul Nicholls has won the King George six times

Over the past twenty years 54 horses aged 10 or over have competed at Kempton on Boxing Day only two have won, Edredon Bleu and Desert Orchid

Seven of the last eight winners of the Lanzarote Hurdle carried 10-10 or more to victory