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Tanya's Blog - 22nd February 2011

Saturday April 2, lest we forget, is the day for the Doncaster Lincoln at Doncaster and while all and sundry slope off for the Paul Nicholls Media Day yesterday, I have to have half an eye on the start of the Flat as it comes all too soon after the Cheltenham Festival. No doubt many of you are now sighing, or trembling with the thought of the Flat.

Back to today, and I thought when Iolith defected from the Totesport Trophy he would be sighted at Kempton this Saturday, he still might, but first he lines up in the 3.40 at Taunton. Against him is Pistolet Noir who is talked up as a possible Coral Cup winner by his trainer and he has had a breathing op since we last saw him. Even so the ground is the massive question mark today. Organisateur has plenty of lead in the saddle although James Cowley takes off a crucial 10lb. Iolith is favourite off the back two solid victories and has little or no weight to carry. However I can’t get out of my head the sight of NUMIDE (3.40 Taunton) looming large in a very competitive handicap hurdle at Sandown last time. Only the petrol ran out very quickly two out, but prior to that he won at Ffos Las. He also ran sixth in the notorious Exeter race which produced Hunterview and Alfie Spinner. He is huge value and that’s what I look for, I’ve backed NUMIDE each-way and am considering dabbling in a forecast with Iolith.

Earlier in the card, how often do you see A P McCoy riding a 20-1 chance HARD TACKLE (2.30 Taunton). Well it's courtesy of short priced favourite Dark Lover who at the time of writing was 4-6 on Betfair. Now I grant you his last line of form being beaten by 81 lengths does nothing to inspire but that was on heavy ground. His first run was more positive at Ascot and he just can’t be the price. On the off chance the favourite trips up I have plunged in each-way.

My final bet is only because I have a bad cold and my sinuses are blocked so there is no sense getting to my brain, so don’t follow me unless you are millionaires. I have had a bet each-way on LIDJO DE ROUGE at 3.05 Taunton. This time last year he would have had the ability to be competitive with today’s rivals, he may have fell out of love with the game and chuck the toys out of the pram in the early proceedings. Back at your own risk.

POINTERS

Michael Wigham has had four winners and a second from his last five runners

Jennie Candlish has had four winners and a third from her last seven runners

Donald McCain has had four winners, two seconds and a third from his last eight runners

Paul Nicholls has had four winners, three seconds, and a third from his last 14 runners

Paul Nicholls has had 22 winners from his last 57 runners at Taunton