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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - 16th March 2011

Much colder in the betting ring this morning, and there was light rain. However we have learnt that are ducking Time For Rupert, while there is a monumental battle in the Champion Chase between Big Zeb and the bookmakers, they want to take him on. However the white flag of surrender is being waved re So Young as the Mullins/Walsh bandwagon rolls on. Honours even in the betting ring after day one, but I believe many bookmakers came out with a small profit.

Personally I can’t recall a worse time for luck for myself over the last few days with various things going wrong, then yesterday I lumped on Great Endeavour and Maljimar. So there is the health warning before plunging on my selections today.

I am going to swerve the first but I have plucked up enough courage to weigh in on So Young, but I will have a just in case each-way on Habbie Simpson as I was impressed by his tenacity in the last run at Cheltenham.

Those who are regulars reading the column will know who I fancy in the RSA Chase and those who don’t its Wymott. The save will be The Giant Bolster.

In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I had gone for Somersby but now I like the look of Mad Max who should be ridden with more restraint than he was last year and could get home this time. The quirky Cornas should never ever be 100-1 for anything and I will have an each-way.

On the Morning Line I gave away my selection in the Coral Cup and it is Orsippus, he is a grade one Aintree winner and Michael Smith had a winner last week, check out the companies offering first five places.



NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Five and six-year-olds are 1 from 62 since 1989

Jonjo O’Neill has won four of the last nine renewals

25 of the last 27 winners finished in the first four last time out
Or
Eight of the last ten finished first or second last time out

Horses aged 9 or over are only one from 43 in the last ten years

Irish runners are 1 from 43 in the last ten years

No outright favourite since 1992



NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

21 of the last 24 winners had run at least three times over hurdles

26 of the last 27 winners finished either first or second last time out

Since 1996 20 horses have worn some sort of headgear or been tongue tied, none have managed to even reach the frame

Only one horse older than six has won since 1974 and over 105 have tried

Six-year-olds have won six of the last 10 runnings

Timmy Murphy’s best placing in ten previous attempts has been 3rd in 2009

AP McCoy has had 13 rides without a win in the race, best finish 2nd in 98 & 09

Howard Johnson has trained a winner and two seconds since 2004

Nicky Henderson is 0 from 21

Edward O’Grady has two seconds and a third since 2002

Nigel Twiston-Davies has had a winner, a third and two fourths since 1999



RSA CHASE

32 of the last 35 winners finished first or second last time out

Just two six-year-olds have won since 1978

All (17) Feltham Chase winners have been beaten

13 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8

Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds since 1998

The average winning distance is seven and a half lengths since 1999

Since 2000 Ruby Walsh has ridden a second and won in 2007 & 2009

Since 1997 AP McCoy has had a winner in 2008, three seconds and a third

 

SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

19 of last 25 (75% since 1985) winners had been placed at worse at previous Cheltenham Festivals

8 of the last 9 winners had won on their last start

Master Minded was the first of ten reigning champions to regain his crown

25 of the last 28 winners started a single figure price

Just one win for a horse aged older than ten since 1977

8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase

Average winning distance 5 ½ lengths since 1996

Since 1999 Paul Nicholls has been represented by one or more runner on ten occasions, he has won four times and had three thirds

AP McCoy has won in 2000 on Edredon Bleu, plus has finished second four times and third once



CORAL CUP

Six of the last eight winners won last time out

Only one winning favourite in the last 14 years

8 of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11-0

Since 1996 22 horses aged 10 or more have run with only a second placing to rave about

Since 1996 48 horses have worn blinkers only three have been placed (a second, a third and two fourths)

Since 1996 28 horses have worn a tongue tie only one has been placed (fourth)

Since 1996 19 horses have worn a visor, only one win and a second

Since 1996 ten have worn cheekpieces one has been placed (fourth)

AP McCoy has ridden five Coral Cup favourites all have been beaten

AP McCoy’s last twelve rides have all been beaten his best finish was second in 97

Since 2003 Richard Johnson has ridden a fourth, three thirds, and won in 2004

 

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