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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - 17th March 2011

I do declare the sun is coming out at Cheltenham, it is nearly 11am on Thursday at the time of writing and I am squeezed in behind the Racing Post blog contingent, with Julian Muscat alongside me in the press room. There is a constant hum of keyboards being tapped and copy being dictated.

However the majority of the press room is distraught as the route map to winner finding has been lost and we are all severely off course. Thank goodness for Orsippus, given me a glimmer of hope. During the morning line I kept banging on about Barwell Bridge in the Pertemps. No sooner had I said Bridge than I had had an email reminding me of the record of 5 year olds in the race – one from 36. I swiftly replied by saying at present that is my tipping record so hopefully two negatives make a positive. Warren Greatrex was positive about him on the panel I sat on and you can ignore the last run at Kempton. I love my forecasts and in the Pertemps, it has to be our old friend Knockara Beau, Barafundle, Barwell Bridge and Gwanako combined.

In the Ryanair Chase I think the on course bookmakers will be taking on Poquelin. I will be also with Kalahari King and Voy Por Ustedes. In the World Hurdle there has been plenty of grumbling re the 4-1 Grands Crus and not being able to get on. Well personally there is no price that would tempt me in on that horse. Big Buck’s is a great champion and I hope he wins. For a sneaky each-way it has to be Cross Kennon and Powerstation.

The only other things that interest me are Aimigayle and Alderley Rover.



PERTEMPS FINAL

Since 1996 there have been 34 runners aged ten or over only one has managed a placing – third

Only one winning five-year-old in 36 runnings (0 from 33 since 96)

Only one winner out of the handicap since 1974

The last seven winners have been priced in double figures

Only one favourite has won in the last ten years the remaining winners have been no better than fourth in the betting

Since 1996 40 horses have worn blinkers managing only one win, two seconds and three thirds



RYANAIR CHASE

Five of the six winners have been priced 6-1 or shorter

Five of the six finished in the first three last time out

The favourite has only won once in six runnings

All six winners had previously won at Cheltenham which leaves us with Alberta’s Run, Calgary Bay, Captain Cee Bee, Gauvain, Hey Big Spender, Mahogany Blaze, Noland, Poquelin, Tartak, Tranquil Sea, Weird Al
Poquelin has won four of his ten races at Cheltenham

Five winners of the Peterborough Chase (and the three winners of the Ascot Chase have been beaten)



LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

No Irish-trained winner for 16 years

No 5-year-old has ever won

The last 9 winners no bigger than 8-1

Horses aged 9 and over are one from 71 since 1988

AP McCoy’s last 12 rides have all been beaten including three favourites

All of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out

Big Buck’s has won four of his five races at Cheltenham

Powerstation is attempting to be placed in his fifth straight Cheltenham Festival



BYRNE GROUP PLATE

The last 9 winners were 12-1 or bigger

11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11 stone

Since 2000 the Favourite has been second five times

In the last ten years the shortest priced winner has been fifth in the betting

AP McCoy is one from five on favourites in the Byrne Plate

17 of the last 19 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival

Just one Irish-trained winner since 1951

13 runners for Nicky Henderson since 2003 have resulted in, 2 winners, one second, three thirds

 

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