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Captain's Blog - 18th March 2011

Buena Vista did the business for us here on the blog at 20/1 yesterday and unless we go mad and lose our senses today he and Sizing Europe have ensured that we will have a decent profit at the end of this years Festival. I do have one strong fancy today and more of that later, but for now some general thoughts about yesterday.

You had to be ridden prominently yesterday on the new course if you wanted to win, and that is in stark contrast to the first two days on the old course where being held up was absolutely vital. Of course this statement should also be entwined with detailed pace analysis of every race but it does appear that the course we race on today on decent ground is one that lends itself to racing prominently. You have been warned.

AP McCoy has now ridden two winners at this year's Festival and that they came on the new course where being handy is important is interesting. For me this course suits his style an awful lot better than the other course where patience and being held up is much more important. Of course this thought has to be tempered with the fact that his two winners yesterday were simply the best horses in their respective races, but I am prepared t state that McCoy is much better on the new rather than the old.

Big Bucks was magnificent in victory yesterday and I tend to think he won with something in hand. He only does just enough and for me he idled on the run in to an extent that gave Grands Crus fans a brief moment of hope. I understand that despite some people wanting him to go chasing again he will not be switching to the larger obstacles and for me that is am eminently sensible and logical decision. Why risk him over fences when all evidence suggests he does not like jumping them and when there is another World Hurdle for the taking. He is currently 2/1 for next years renewal and that could look very big this time next year. Finally there is no doubt that Grands Crus ran a big race yesterday, but he could be even better on softer ground. If you get a chance look at his choppy action, and look at his soft ground form and you too will believe like me that soft ground is what he needs.

Now lets move on. The Gold Cup is a tricky contest and I will not be recommending a wager. I am pleased that Ruby Walsh is back on Kauto Star, he is vital to the horse and hold up tactics that I understand are going to be employed may help him utilise his speed. Some believe he is on the wain, I am not so sure and decent ground may well see him return to former glories. The race is very open and plenty of horses are being backed including kempes who is very interesting, but I am going to leave it well alone and hope that Kauto can do it. I am tempted to oppose Long Run given his Cheltenham record but am not brave enough, for me he could be out of the frame, we shall see.

Dirar is the one for me today folks in the county hurdle. He is being really well backed and is well handicapped over hurdles. He had a tune up on the All Weather the other week and his trainer is Gordon Elliott who has had two winners at the Festival already. He was 12/1 for the race a week ago and I have missed the boat really, but value is a winner whatever the priceas far as I am concerned so I am going to climb abord the Dirar train and you could do worse.

I hope you have enjoyed our Cheltenham coverage on , a lot of late nights and hard work behind the scenes has gone into it and from our perspective it has gone well I hope you agree.

Enjoy day four.

Today’s Selection

2:05 Cheltenham - Dirar (each way 13/2 Paddy Power )