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Tanya's Blog - 8th April 2011

Denman’s defeat just covered some of the damage on all the other races. Brilliant ride by Paddy Brennan on Nacarat, he turned it literally to a sprint, something Denman would never win. It’s hard to say whether Palawi would have stuck on for third in Zarkander’s race. All looked well with Turko when Sam Waley-Cohen took him to the outside but he over jumped the eighth only to come a cropper.

Enough of feeling sorry for myself, another big day today and it’s Battle Group who catches my eye. I watched each and every Cheltenham Festival DVD writing down horses to follow next time. Battle Group came from nowhere to grab fourth in the Coral Cup, he runs in Aintree’s 4.50.

The other pick is Frankie Figg and Mon Parrain in the Topham Chase. Frankie Figg relishes the big old Grand National fences, even though he is prone to a crucial error and that’s why he has fell twice round them but in November he put the record straight and led all the way to win in the Grand Sefton, I was relieved when connections removed him from the Grand National so he could run in this. Then I saw that Mon Parrain was running. Mon Parrain drifted so badly on his British debut that I thought he was a cert not to win, instead he made me eat a large portion of humble pie as he had to be the easiest winner of the year, so impressive. He could be thrown in and win by the home straight which is why I am tipping two horses in the race. Mon Parrain could be something special, although I love Frankie Figg and he is an Aintree specialist.

As for the remainder of the card I am really tempted to put up Quito De La Roque, had he run at Cheltenham he would have been my nap of the meeting. But I worry a tight, sharp course like Aintree on good ground won’t suit. He is a class act and should have beaten Bostons Angel earlier in the season. When I watched the tapes back of the Festival I saw how close Wayward Prince got to the winner in the RSA Chase. Sadly The Giant Bolster fell in the RSA but we know he loves Aintree and one horse who should never have run at Cheltenham and instead come straight here was Master Of The Hall. It will be a superb contest as Golan Way should head off at 100 mph to play catch me if you can. If Quito De La Roque is as good as I think he is he should win Aintree’s 2.30.

The Melling Chase I have no strong thoughts but my stomach will churn if Kalahari King wins after Cheltenham, yet I do believe it is a race suited for Tranquil Sea and is Master Minded 11-2? Probably a race well left alone.

A horse who could slip under the radar while we are all focusing on Aintree is Devil To Pay at Fontwell Park. Ridden by my colleague Alice Plunkett in the Cheltenham Festival charity race, he came with a strong late run, but back over hurdles today he should take care of his rivals in Fontwell’s 4.30.

POINTERS

Alan Bailey has had four winners and a second from his last six runners

Harry Bentley has ridden four winners from his last eight

Only one winning favourite in the last ten years of Aintree’s 2.00

Eight of the last ten winners of Aintree’s 2.00 finished no worse than third on their last start

Seven of the last ten winners of Aintree’s 2.00 were aged 5

Eight of the last nine winners of Aintree’s 2.30 ran at the Cheltenham Festival

The last nine winners of Aintree’s 2.30 started no bigger than 7-1

Eight of the last ten winners of the Melling Chase finished no worse than third on their previous start

Four of the last five winners of the Melling Chase had run in the Ryanair Chase

Favourites have won five of the last nine Melling Chases

Only one of the last ten favourites has won the Topham Chase over the National fences