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Tanya's Blog - 9th April 2011

John Smith’s Grand National Day, the anticipation mounts as every minute ticks by, so many long lost relatives have been in touch asking for a selection and I keep reminding them as I will you, the only Grand National I have backed was Ben Nevis back in 1981!!! So I don’t really plough much of my hard earned into the race instead I have a few speculative interests.

This year my prediction for the first four home is THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, STATE OF PLAY and THAT’S RHYTHM.

The Midnight Club’s credentials are hard to deny, Chief Dan George loves Aintree and comes good at this time of the year. State Of Play is best when fresh. Then finally I think one of the best jockeys round the Grand National fences is James Reveley, That’s Rhythm ran well in the Charlie Hall Chase and carries no weight he can’t be 100-1. I’ve backed all four each-way, but I stress only small.

Now on to the important business, back to the Cheltenham Festival DVDs I watched, they unearthed Battle Group yesterday, problem is I marked down both SAM WINNER and RECESSION PROOF in the Aintree 1.45. Obviously SAM WINNER is crying out to run over the extra four furlongs after finishing with a late flourish in the Triumph Hurdle. Recession Proof ran such a good race in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle that his efforts went unnoticed but I will be having a saver on him.

The Aintree Hurdle is over two-and-a-half miles, the bookmakers and exchange layers are willing to take on Peddlers Cross at 13-8. I worry about the way Nicky Henderson’s horses have run at Aintree especially those who have taken in the Cheltenham Festival, although this is the ideal trip for Oscar Whisky I would give him a swerve also. Binocular comes here because he missed Cheltenham and is looking for compensation but the best value could well be SALDEN LICHT each-way who didn’t go too badly in the County Hurdle giving weight all round.

Put a massive line through RARE BOB’s last run at Cheltenham he was left at the start, so in Aintree’s 3.25 he is value. I will be having a bet on GREAT ENDEAVOUR also as he hit the front too soon in the same race, with hold-up tactics he’ll be hard to beat. Finally RED MERLIN should fulfil his recent promise in Aintree’s 5.00.

I’m in Lingfield’s betting ring today where I hope to see DUBAWI GOLD show the blistering kick he did a fortnight ago at the course in the 3.00.

Quito De La Roque certainly a horse with talent and I think 25-1 is big for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. There are plenty more big races in him I’m just relieved he won.

Here’s to a day as good as yesterday, let’s hope all the horses come back safely.

POINTERS

GRAND NATIONAL STATS

Horses carrying over 11-5 are 0-94 since 1977

Every winner in the last 40 years had won over 3 miles+

No winner under the age of eight for 71 years

Only three horses aged 8 have won the race in the last 30 years Piraya, What A Friend, Majestic Concorde, Calgary Bay, Becauseicouldntsee, King Fontaine, no 7-year-olds or six-year-olds have won in that period which doesn’t bode well for: Quinz, Quolibet

Only two greys have won the Grand National – Character Building, Silver By Nature, Quolibet and Piraya

The Irish have won six of the last 12 Grand Nationals

Five of the last eight winners had run in the race the previous season

Seven of the last ten winners had run over the National fences

Four of the last five winners were allotted 10-6 at the time the weights were announced, this year State Of Play and King Fontaine

Richard Hannon last eight runners in Lingfield’s International Trial Stakes have all been beaten

Ten of the last 13 winners of Aintree’s 1.45 were favourite or second favourite

Paul Nicholls has had three winners from five runners in Aintree’s 1.45

15 of the last 16 winners of Aintree’s 2.15 had run in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival

Paul Nicholls has won Aintree’s 2.15 four times in the last nine years

The last ten winners of Aintree’s 2.15 came from the first three in the betting

Nicky Henderson’s last 14 runners in the Aintree Hurdle have all been beaten, Binocular and Oscar Whisky have much to do.

Irish raiders have never won Aintree’s 3.25