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Tanya's Blog - 4th June 2011

There was a time when the Derby was on a Wednesday I sat in the backseat of my parents car and left for Epsom from Essex at 6.30am, there was no M25 and the journey to the course was long and arduous, the queues closing in on the venue seemed never-ending, the day was an occasion, the Epsom Downs from above must of looked like a large termite mound. The great race for many reasons, now shunted to a Saturday, traffic queues are less and lighter and racing struggling to battle of the attentions of French Open tennis and the second test at Lords, thank goodness the England international at Wembley doesn’t kick-off until this evening!

Yet this season is an anomaly, a blessing for our sport, racing has been given a ‘gift horse’ alongside the delights of Frankel and Canford Cliffs, the hope is Carlton House, owned by Her Majesty The Queen wins the Investec Derby, prising open racing’s window to the wider world and giving the sport the much needed injection of exposure. An enormous wave of sentiment on and off the course at Epsom will try and urge the royal runner across the line in front, personally in my heart I hope Carlton House wins, but my head and pocket has invested in POUR MOI to win, with small each-ways on Pisco Sour and Memphis Tennesse. It is race I will prefer to watch rather than bet on.

My nap of the day runs at Musselburgh, CAPTAIN BROWN and Rosie Jessop could very well team up for a memorable win in the 3.10. Then my next best can be none other than SOHRAAB, I have worn out the rewind button on the remote control watching his run at Newbury last time, so if anything I need him to win to buy a new DVD player and remote. The combined forecast with Confessional and Fathom Five, leave me with my fingers tightly crossed.

Then there is MIDSUMMER FAIR, who was at one point my long range Derby selection, he instead runs at Doncaser, reports were from my friends in France he was beaten shortly after the start in the French 2,000 Guineas, forgiveness and ignoring the run would see him go close. To sign off a very busy day there has been a small wager placed on THE GALLOPING SHOE in Epsom’s 4.50. But in reality the only way to make money today is to sell ice-creams or drinks!

POINTERS

As highlighted in the Weekender page 3, no winner has exited the highest stall since Royal Palace in 1967, in 2011 it is CARLTON HOUSE!

15 of the last 18 Derby winners won on their last start 11 of the last 13

Derby winners won two of their last three starts

The last 18 Derby winners were no worse than second on their previous start

The last 14 Derby winners were no worse than second on their last two starts

6-1 is the biggest starting price of the last ten Investec Derby winners

Godolphin’s last 20 Derby runners have all been beaten

8 of the last 25 Derby winners were drawn in stall ten

Johnny Murtagh’s 14 Derby rides have resulted in three wins, one second and two thirds

Eight of the last ten winners of the Investec Dash have been six or older

Eleven of the last 12 ‘Dash’ winners have been drawn in stall 8 or higher

The average starting price of Epsom’s 3pm the Investec Dash is nearly 10-1 and the favourite has failed to better fourth in eight long years

David Nicholls has won four ‘Dash’ races in the last nine years, he has also won Epsom’s 5.25pm four times in the last nine years

Roger Varian has had four winners from his last nine runners