Tanya's Blog - 25th June 2011
Who will be favourite for the John Smith’s Northumberland Plate? At present with the momentum of Pricewise and of course Nick Luck’s approval in Racing Ahead, thoughts are that Deauville Flyer from being 12-1 yesterday may snatch that very mantle come post time. However there isn’t such blanket support in the tipsters’ table, many go for Harlestone Times who is being upped in distance and a few still stand by Activate despite the stall 18 draw.
But when the masses click through the Gosforth Park turnstiles, sentiment might just win through with a swathe of readies finding its way into bookmakers satchels for Overturn. Much responsibility falls into the hands of young Henry Brooke, known more for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere, he takes the ride aboard one of the sports most popular competitor, OVERTURN. His front-running style, bravery and tenacity in a finish wins us over every time, I have tipped him today, perhaps my heart ruling my head but he may just hang on with so many imponderables over his rivals.
If I was to have an each-way saver then that would be on My Arch, a recent winner at Pontefract, he is old enough and wise enough to deal with the soft conditions and be able to run into a place off a light weight.
In the other races I like REGAL PARADE in Newcastle’s 2.00, KLYNCH for Ruth Carr at 2.30, and VITO VOLTERRA did well to fend off all comers over a mile at the course on Thursday, dropping down to 7 furlongs shouldn’t retract from his chances.
Heavy rain has fallen since I made my selections for today’s Newmarket racecards on Thursday, but I stand by them and they are as follows, 1.45 Mister Music, 2.15 Lily’s Angel, 2.45 Allied Powers, 3.20 Libranno, 3.55 Chef, 4.30 Burj Nahar and 5.05 Watneya.
Despite the stats I really like the chances of LIBRANNO in the Criterion, he ran a great race at Windsor behind Bated Breath with stable companion and last week’s Golden Jubilee runner-up Monsieur Chevalier just behind. He is worth a sneaky each-way at least.
Nine of the last twelve winners had run within the last 28 days
Over the past twelve years 54 five-year-olds have tried to win the Northumberland Plate all have failed
Seven of the last ten winning distances were half a length or under
12 of the last 15 winning distances were under a length
Only one of the last 14 winners has carried more than 8-11 to victory those anchored today are
Only 4 of the last twenty-four favourites have won
Only 4 horses since 1998 have won from a double-figure draw
Only one of the previous five winners of the Empress Stakes had won on their previous start
None of the last five winners of the Fred Archer Stakes had won on their previous start
Richard Hills has won the Fred Archer Stakes five times since 1997 for five different trainers
Eight of the last ten winners of the Fred Archer Stakes have been aged four
Six of the last ten favourites have won the Fred Archer Stakes
13 of the last 16 winners of the Criterion had finished no better than fourth on their previous start
Only two of the last ten favourites have won the Criterion Stakes
Since 1996 only one of the last 27 three-year-olds to contest the race have won
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