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Captain's Blog - 19th September 2011

Ginger McCain has sadly passed away aged 80. The trainer of Red Rum can rightly be acclaimed to be Mr. Aintree and he was a real character who was always good to listen to. He will be missed. Rest in Peace Ginger.

Just now and then I turn to Andy Beyer's book Beyer On Speed to try and educate myself further about this Racing game. Last night I decided to have a look at the concept of weight carried in a race to try and work out just how much of an effect it has. In this country we always say weight will stop a train, but actually there is no mathematical evidence that this is true. The reason that such a statement is incorrect is because if a horse carries 10 pounds more than he did last time out and produces a performance that is below the standard of his previous performance we cannot sensibly attribute the lesser performance to the increased weight carried.

We have to ask how much of the decline in performance was actually due to other factors such as pace, trip, track bias or fitness. This is the problem with collateral form analysis as well, for to say a horse A is 6lb better off with horse B for a one length beating is merely to state a fact but to imply that the form may be turned around because of this factor alone is to deny the influence of pace, ground, track bias or fitness and to do this is to ignore the most imprtant factors of race analysis. Weight does clealy have an effect, but Beyer and other handicappers have by and large failed to find a formula to tell us just how much of an effect it has.

Clearly in this country when we are dealing with races of a mile and a half plus weight is far more influential than in sprints, but my point is that we should not blindly assume that weight and its part in analysis is as influential as we would like it to be. I say like it to be because it is far too easy to say that a horse is up 10 pounds so cannot win, and when things are this easy they are invariably wrong. Weight carried is a component among factors that affect a horses performance but it is a small one and not even close to being as influential as pace.

St Helens beat Wigan yesterday in the Superleague play-offs which brings much joy to the McNae household. I even watched the game again from start to finish again at 6.00am this morning with my daughter who wanted to get up for reasons completely unrelated to Rugby League, but just as important. One more game to win and then it will be a sixth consecutive appearance in the Grand Final at Old Trafford.

A day off for me today before returning to the fray again tomorrow.
All the best.

Today's Selection

4.40 Hamilton - Walvis Bay (each way 15/2 Boylesports)