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Captain's Blog - 23rd November 2011

Well we at least tipped a winner yesterday even if it was an odds on poke. Increasingly in these days of accurate markets I am coming to the realisation that the concept of value is an outdated one. If a horse drifts to what we would say in the old days was a value price we should not automatically press the back button, but rather ask ourselves why the drift?

Over the last year or so I have wrestled with this question and sometimes could find no plausible reason. This has led me to a rather simplistic conclusion and that is that horses drift to a value price because they are not going to win. Now I am not denying that drifters win, the odd one like Brockfield at Southwell yesterday does, but markets are so accurate now, we would be in denial if we did not view them with a degree of suspicion. I would not lay a drifter because the odd one wins and usually at a decent price, but I am prepared to follow the crowd and back strongly supported horses. Indeed being with the crowd is where you need to be these days. In times gone by against the crowd was the value stance to take, but now being with the crowd provides the new value. Perhaps therefore value does indeed still exist but can now be found simply in the winner whatever the price!

In following the crowd we must be wary of the in-running market. On an increasing number of occasions horses are strongly backed and shorten in the market because they are either going to make the running and get an easy lead or are strong travellers. These horses are being supported not because they have outstanding chances but because they provide in running traders with the perfect vehicle to trade out of their bet early on in the race and revel in the green screen in front of them. In these cases following the crowd is a dangerous ploy unless you too are looking to trade out in the race.

Thus being with the crowd these days is in my opinion the place to be more often than not, but the in-running market adds extra complication to the whole picture. This has to effect how you look at races these days and the most important area for study is surely pace and horses' running styles, these factors are now linked to the shape of the markets and to try and explain what is going on by looking at the horses in the paddock or by studying collateral form is becoming a floored way of looking at races. Of course you can gain a complete picture by going to the paddock and by looking at the pounds and ounces of a race, but the modern era has usurped these methods of study and if we want to win we need to move with the times!

I am in the studio tonight with Eddie Freemantle and am very much looking forward to a pretty good card from Kempton. Please join us from 4pm and get involved in the show in the usual way by emailing [email protected].

All the best.

Today's Selection

7.05 Kempton - Sermons Mount (each way 13/2 Paddy Power)