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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - 14th January 2012

Warwick was covered, and it is all systems go for the Betfred Classic Chase where Alan King is seeking his third straight win in the race and another big Saturday prize this year. Blazing Bailey is his representative and has the big tick from Pricewise forcing his odds down. His eighth in the Hennessy is very attractive but the runs either side aren’t so. I have chosen to put my faith in FAASEL, twice second in a Kim Muir and runner-up in the Bet365 Gold Cup in April, he relishes a test of stamina, just hope the ground isn’t too tacky for him. The danger for me is Major Malarkey. A little earlier I like BARWELL BRIDGE in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, but will have the notebook at the ready for some of the also rans who are bound to give a better account of themselves at Cheltenham in March. Kempton re-inspect at 10am and if it goes ahead I like Timesawastin in the Lanzarote Hurdle.

Good luck for all your selections whatever they maybe, I’m off to catch the end of play in Australia v India, then there is the darts, with The Count Ted Hankey in the semis. Having backed both the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers with some conviction to win the Superbowl, the nerves are now kicking in. I can’t believe the Saints have come this far, the bet on them was more of sentiment whereas the one on Packers was due to their class. The Saints are the crowd-pleasers, the unorthodox team, dynamic, charismatic, risk takers. Tonight they visit San Francisco and the 49ers, a team with a defence like a brick wall. How Drew Brees is going to help his team penetrate it makes me nervous. It certainly going to be a spectacle, I haven’t had a saver, New Orleans owe me nothing I backed them when they won the Superbowl a few years ago. Then tomorrow it is the turn of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to halt the momentum of the Giants, just as tricky, fingers are tightly crossed. Exchange users were frustrated yesterday when Betfair went down for a couple of hours.

When collecting thoughts about the incident, this inconvenience has far more reaching ramifications. On course betting rings are now full of bookmakers who have just bought the pitches to take money from those attending and immediately hedge back on the exchanges. They have no knowledge of the form or indeed, not much of their trade, what is value, what is a percentage and certainly not how to price up a race!!! So when the exchanges to go down there are very few bookmakers on course who have the wherewith all to put prices on the board, and as such the percentage goes up to ludicrous proportions, leading to punters suffering across every betting platform.

With no exchanges would that mean the return of the £50, £100 or more punters at the course and a more vibrant betting ring, punters would have to get on somewhere, and would it mean the return of bookmakers with calculators in their head. If it wasn’t for Barry Dennis, John White and William Hills and Ladbrokes at Lingfield yesterday who do know the game inside out then the percentages offered would have been a front page sensation, instead thankfully no one is any the wiser.

 

POINTERS

Barry Geraghty has ridden eight winners from his last 13 rides at Kempton, which included four wins from his last five rides over hurdles

Nicky Henderson has had nine winners from his last 19 Kempton runners, he has a 50% strike rate with his hurdlers at the course this season and a 44% strike rate with his chasers

Venetia Williams has had five winners and two thirds from her last 13 runners

Aidan Coleman and Venetia Williams have teamed up for four winners from their last eight runners

Henry Daly has had five winners, a second and a third from his last 13 runners

Sarah Humphrey has had three winners from her last five runners

Racing Post Signposts page 29 flag up the fact that Jim Crowley is a man to follow today at Lingfield with seven winners from his last 13 rides

Jack Quinlan and John Ferguson have teamed up for four winners from their last six runners

Tom Scudamore has had seven winners from his last 16 rides

 

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