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Captain's Blog - Thursday 3rd May 2012

Any hope that Daddy Long Legs had of winning the Kentucky Derby have surely vanished with him being drawn in stall one on Saturday night at Churchill Downs. One may think that a draw right on the inside is a good one, but for two reasons it really is the coffin box.

Firstly if you do not jump out of the stalls sharply horses on your outside will cut across and beat you to the first turn. It leads almost inevitably to you getting trouble in running, have to be checked and get dirt kicked in your face. The way to avoid this is to break smartly and lead, but in doing so you will be forced to go faster than you should and that is always fatal to a winning chance.

Only two horses in the last 46 years have won from stall one and whilst I am not a man who relies on stats to predict the future, for they only tell you about the past, this particular stat goes some way to back up the logic of stall one being a bad one.

Todays Selection is Byrd in Hand in the 7.10pm at Brighton. This horse likes the track, ran well here last time up and is ahead of his mark. Plus he comes from the John Bridger yard which has found the magic touch over the last 12 months or so.

I have a day away from the studio today, but as of tomorrow I am going to be very busy. It is a good time of year to be busy though with some excellent racing coming up over the next few weeks. Newmarket, Kentucky, Chester and York will keep us very honest in the weeks to come and hopefully will give us a clue or two as regards the Derby. We could do with the weather improving though because the likes of Chester and York are fabulous places to be in the sun and not only that but the racing is so much better on decent ground.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the Kentucky Derby and then on Satuday it will be the 2000 Guineas that occupies my time.

All the best.

Today’s Selection

7.10 Brighton: Byrd in Hand