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Tanya's Blog - Friday 18th May 2012

A significant further drop in temperature at York, and now it’s raining! I’m assured that it warms up from next week. Wish the York betting ring would – the last strong fortress has been affected by the recession. Horror stories of less than £1,000 turnover cumulative for all races on Wednesday were followed by a note passed in my hand on Thursday which read: “Bookies Destroyed”. Will there be any left to stand up today? There were 30 per cent less standing on the first two days than twelve months ago. I fear this trend will only get worse as such a huge group of on course bookmakers cut each other’s throats for the ever-decreasing pound. And as I’ve said before some bookmakers have more than one pitch so if they relinquish those and only have one then York for example could have been down to 55 from 90!

Then there is the problem of on-course each-way terms. Of the 61 standing at York on Wednesday only three bet 1/4 the odds at the appropriate times, the rest bet a fifth or worse. It’s not good enough and it’s another reason why turnover is down. Those that do know value know to find it off-course for each-way so they stay at home or bet before they go!

On a happier note looking at today’s action there could be some value to be had with the likes of War Poet, who hasn’t stopped improving since his last win last season. He won well at Doncaster last time and I sense he could improve again to win the 2pm.

The way John Gosden’s The Fugue won the Musidora Stakes you’d hope Starscope can come out and confirm her 1,000 Guineas second by winning Newbury’s 2.10pm. It could be a good day for David O’Meara as his Blue Bajan has twice finished second in the Yorkshire Cup, hopefully it’s third time lucky!

Today's selections:

2.00 York: War Poet

2.10 Newbury: Starscope

2.30 York: Blue Bajan

Tanya's Pointers

1.30pm York:
Six of the seven winners had won on their previous start
The biggest starting price of all seven winners was 7-1

2pm York:
James Sullivan has ridden Easy Terms six times winning on him on five occasions
Daniel Tudhope has ridden War Poet six times, winning twice and finishing second three times
Six of the last seven winners were aged five
Eight of the last ten winners have been drawn in single figure stalls
Only one of the last ten winners were priced in double figures, despite that only two favourites have obliged
Tim Easterby’s last seven runners in the race have all been beaten
Mick Easterby’s last nine runners in the race have all been beaten

2.10pm Newbury:
Jimmy Fortune has had six winners from his last 15 rides (he has a ride in Newbury’s 1.40pm)
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting

2.30pm York:
Eight of the last ten winners were beaten on their last run
Seven of the last ten winners had had at least one run this season
The biggest priced winner in the last 10 years was 9-1

3pm York:
The biggest price of the six winners was 15-2
Five of the six winners had been beaten on their previous start