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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 2nd June 2012

There were times if you weren’t at Reigate by 8am for Derby Day you could miss the first race! That was back in the day when the race was on a Wednesday and the meeting was four days long! I have vivid memories of attending the race in 1977 (the Queen’s Silver Jubilee) but I’m told I was there even before that!

Last year I went to Chessington on Derby Day, and had a fabulous time, hardly anyone was there and the weather was glorious and I was home in time to watch the big race. Today, I choose to have the best view in house on television, whether it be in a betting shop or just home, it will be without all the deadlines and accreditation normally associated with my job.

There has been much rumbling about the number of runners in the Investec Derby, I feel the best way to look at the numerical line-up is to consider that normally it has nine possible winners and between 2 or more no hopers, this time the no hopers are in the field.

It’s been great to watch BBC Breakfast all morning as Epsom has paid a starring role every 15 minutes courtesy of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations.

Is Camelot a cert for the Derby? Mac said he is on the Morning Line and I tend to agree and instead prefer to play in the betting without market. And at around 4-1 I like Main Sequence, unbeaten, improving and trainer David Lanigan is no stranger to flirting with Classic success courtesy of Meeznah and the Oaks in 2010.
I was lucky enough to be present at Breakfast with the Stars last week and in my time I have never seen a horse adapt to Epsom as well as Rugged Cross did, he seemed to love it. He might not be good enough but I cant get the image of his pricked ears and comfortable stride at this most unique of venues.

In the Investec Dash it favours a high draw and an experienced handicapper which means that I can once again show my allegiance to Sohraab.

Today's Selections:

3.15 EPSOM: SOHRAAB

4.00 EPSOM: RUGGED CROSS (each-way)

4.00 EPSOM: MAIN SEQUENCE (without Camelot)

Tanya's Pointers

Nine of the last ten winners of the Derby came from the first three in the betting

Sixteen of the last 19 Derby winners won on their last start

Tweleve of the last 14 Derby winners won two of their last three starts

Fourteen of the last 15 Derby winners were no worse than second on their last two starts

The biggest starting price of the last ten Investec Derby winners is 6-1

Jimmy Fortune has finished no better than ninth on his seven Derby rides

Mark Johnston has won Epsom’s Woodcote Stakes three times from his last seven runners

Aidan O’Brien has won the Coronation Cup five times in the last seven years

Eight of the last ten winners of the Investec Dash have been six or older

Twelve of the last 13 ‘Dash’ winners have been drawn in stall eight or higher

The favourite has finished no better than fourth in nine of the last ten years

David Nicholls has won four ‘Dash’ races in the last ten years (from 40 runners), he has also won Epsom’s 5.25pm four times in the last ten years (from 45 runners)

Bryan Smart has a 47% strike rate (17 from 36) with his two-year-olds at Musselburgh over the last five seasons and he shows a massive level stake profit of £49.26 he has also won Musselburgh’s 1.55 twice from the last four years

Four of the five winners of the Tradesman’s Cup carried 9-1 or more

Eight of the last nine winners of the Scottish Sprint Cup have been aged four or five

Six of the last nine winners were drawn in double figure stalls, the remaining winners came from stall 6!

The last six favourites have won Haydock’s 3.40, the Sandy Lane Stakes

Roger Varian has had 10 winners from his last 27 Haydock runners, 37%

William Haggas is flying at present with 10 winners, two seconds and a third from his last 21 runners

Nine of the last ten winners of the Timeform Jury Stakes came from the first three in the betting

Roger Charlton has had six winners from his last 15 runners aged four or older at Haydock

Mirco Demuro has had six winners from his last 16 rides for Mark Johnston