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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 4th August 2012

I was never settled going into this morning’s programme and if I could turn back the clock ... the fact is, though you can’t so time to move on. Even though the course has had a good dousing of rain the temperature has upheld and there will be a quick change for me shortly as the skies clear. The ground is good and we are set fair for a great day’s action.

During the programme I sent out a plea for the on-course bookmakers to bet 1/4 the odds in the Stewards’ Cup as it does have an effect on you at home. As if the on-course bookmakers persist on offering worse terms 1/7, 1/8 or even 1/12 then those off-course will in the long run have to retract their 1/4 terms. The mathematics means they can’t continually show a loss on the each-ways.

Pace is the key in these big sprints today. I love the Stewards’ Cup and am going for an all the way win for Es Que Love. I was tempted with Elusive Prince, the fear is he won’t be able to sustain his run whereas in big fields fanned across the course Es Que Love has proved it twice already this season and what form Mark Johnston is in!

In the Stewards’ Sprint I can choose between Poole Harbour and Tax Free so I will do them both and put them in a forecast.

Motivado has been the money horse in the 2.40pm at Goodwood. From 6.15pm last night this became apparent as his price on the exchanges, 13-2, was much shorter than that in the betting offices. Open the papers this morning and he is Pricewise, add to that his trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, and it’s punting heaven for some.

My other selection goes at Thirsk in the Summer Cup, also live on . David O’Meara’s Mont Ras ran a blinder at Doncaster at the start of the season and his last two runs haven’t been all that bad.

Have just checked the HWPA Tipping competition. It seems I am nicely placed in sixth for the five days of Goodwood with a healthy £26 profit to a £1 level stake going into the last day so the pressure is on. Getting a podium placing is the aim so I need to land the winner of one of the big sprints.

It’s been a long and enjoyable week and I am now flagging and craving my rest day tomorrow before back to the office Monday and prep for the Shergar Cup.

 

Today's Selections:

2.05 Goodwood Poole Harbour

3.35 Thirsk Mont Ras

3.55 Goodwood Es Que Love

 

Tanya's Pointers

Only five of Sir Mark Prescott’s last 19 runners have finished out of the first 3 with 7 winners!

2.05pm - Steward's Sprint
The last eight favourites have been beaten

2.40pm - Toyo Tires Performance Handicap
Luca Cumani has won three times from his last six runners
Eight of the last ten winners have carried 9-4 or more
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting

3.15pm - Nassau Stakes
All of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting with the biggest price 11-2
John Gosden’s last five runners have all been beaten
Sir Henry Cecil has won the last three courtesy of Midday

3.55pm - Stewards' Cup
Nine of the last ten winners were aged four or five
Seven of the last ten winners were drawn stalls 10 to 19
All of the last ten winners had won over 6f
Tweleve of the last 16 winners ran in the Wokingham and of those twelve, 11 had had another subsequent run prior to Goodwood!
The last horse to run in a Group race prior to the Stewards’ Cup and win was back in 1981

 

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