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Captain's Blog - Wednesday 22nd August

Is there a horse or a set of circumstances that can beat Frankel today?

The first part of the question is easy to answer, no there is no horse in the field good enough to beat him today.

As for a set of circumstances that could cost him, well, I think there is one foreseeable scenario that will put him in a vulnerable position.

As we all know Frankel has won his races so far by showing raw and electrifying pace and much has been said about the two 10-second furlongs that he can rely on whenever Tom Queally presses the button. That change of pace that this remarkable horse can sustain for 400 metres or so is a deadly weapon in his armoury.

So far Tom Queally has utilised this change of pace to very good effect, but over a ten furlongs there is much less margin for error in terms of using this weapon than over a mile.

In the St James's Palace Stakes last year Tom went too soon and Frankel was nearly caught close home. Tom timed that gear change badly and the horse got him out of trouble. Over ten furlongs if Tom is tempted to put in those two ten-second furlongs a long way from home he will be a sitting target for the likes of St Nicholas Abbey in the closing stages. I do not believe stamina is an issue for Frankel, but if you use his turn of pace too early in a mile race the finishing line will save you, but over ten furlongs you will not get away with it.

Thus to answer my original question, yes there is a set of circumstances in which Frankel could be beaten and those embedded in Tom Queally's pace judgement and timing.

I am working in the studio tonight covering all the action from Kempton and no doubt we will be talking about what happened at York during the day. Please do get in touch at the usual address, studio@racinguk.com

My selection today is Kalk Bay in the 4.50 at York. This horse is thriving at the moment and bolted up in a fast time at Beverley recently. He races here off a mark of 83, which underplays his ability. He should be backed each-way and at the time of writing is 8/1 with a number of firms.

Over to you Mr Queally.

Today's Selection

4.50pm York: Kalk Bay