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Tanya's Blog - Sunday 18th November

Paul Nicholls and David Pipe have four wins apiece going into day three of the Open Meeting. Standing in the betting ring on Saturday was about as amazing as the 5-2 scorline in the North London derby! Bookmakers reported it was as busy, if not busier, than any day at the Cheltenham Festival and thanks to the defeat of Grands Crus a profitable one at that. 

Though bookmakers do have to work hard to earn your money; costs such as seven times the admittance fee just to stand on their pitch for the day, whether in the prime pitch or out in the wilderness, isn’t the greatest enticement.

Quotes for the Festival in March were flying about in all directions; Far West for the Triumph Hurdle is 12-1, Our Father 14-1 with Paddy Power and 12-1 Ladbrokes for the RSA Chase and then there were some wild and massive quotes for Al Ferof for the King George, now sensibly settled down at around 8-1!  

Sprinter Sacre’s defection from Sunday’s card may well be a body blow from attendees but it now makes for a good betting race. Had he have taken his place most bookmakers would have used the time for a tea break. Trying to take money in a race with a 1-6 favourite is nigh on impossible. We look forward to Sprinter Sacre taking his chance in the Tingle Creek on December 8 at Sandown Park, and let’s hope Sanctuaire appears against him and/or indeed last year’s winner Sizing Europe!

Only six finished in the BetVictor Gold Cup, giving evidence of how soft it was out there. In one of the latter races it was very hard to decipher some of the colours due to jockeys silks being so mud splattered - a rarity for Cheltenham.

Jamie Moore rode a beautiful race on Monbeg Dude, let’s hope he can repeat the trick in Cheltenham’s opening race aboard Sire De Grugy. Fourth in the Betfair Hurdle and third in the Imperial Cup shows just how classy he was over the smaller obstacles. He certainly impressed me on his chase debut at Kempton. Although he won on soft, I just hope he can go through the ground.

One horse who can’t have it soft enough is Baresi, his last few runs have been on heavy going and priced in double figures he could be value in the 1.45.

Then in the Racing Post Hurdle, we have Snap Tie, who reappeared in April to win his only race after being off the track since October 2009!  It was a phenomenal effort by Philip Hobbs and the team, simply awesome. He loves the soft ground. I have this little suspicion that Star Of Aragon could run well at a silly price. He was 40-1 last night but that was before Darlan was scratched and then Vendor, The Tiddly Tadpole and Grey Soldier this morning. He was fifth to Local Hero at Market Rasen on ground, which would have been to lively for him. 

If you want any evidence of how hard analyst Chris Dixon works he was still surveying and creating his ratings and stats in the press room as I left at 6pm and he had been on the Morning Line with me arriving at the course at 7.30am!

Today's Tips:

1.10 Cheltenham Sire De Grugy

1.45 Cheltenham Baresi

2.50 Cheltenham Snap Tie (16/1 William Hill ) &
Star Of Aragon (50/1 SkyBet )(both each-way)

Tanya's Pointers:

Paul Nicholls has won Cheltenham’s 1.10 six times in the last ten years

Nine of the last ten winners of Cheltenham’s 1.10 came from the first two in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners of Cheltenham’s 1.10 were no older than 6

Four of the last five winners of Cheltenham’s 1.45 were making their seasonal reappearance

Six of the last eight winners of the Racing Post Hurdle came from the first two in the betting

Eight of the last ten winners of the Racing Post Hurdle were no older than six