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Angus McNae

Captain's Blog - Wednesday 21st November

Unfortunately there will be no racing from Warwick today as the meeting has been abandoned. Never fear, because Kempton Park comes to our rescue on with a twilight fixture. There is also a meeting there tomorrow for which I will be back in the studio. On days like this the all-weather action is a real tonic for the sport and I am a big fan.

I know that many of you want 25/1 winners on tap, but unfortunately such gems are rarely unearthed and I am afraid my selection is going to be a short price today. Still a short-priced winner is miles better than a long-priced loser.

This brings me on to the V word. V is for value, which in my opinion is overused and outdated in this modern era of exchange betting. If you think a horse is a 5/1 shot and it goes off at 16/1, there is a good reason why it is that price on the exchanges. It is not going to win.

Equally if you think a horse has a 10/1 chance of winning and it is 6/4, you should not be opposing it. The markets are very accurate these days, and there is a flood of well-informed money out there.

I really do think that in years gone by, being against the crowd was the way to go, but now the wisdom of the crowds is so advanced that taking note of how they affect the market can be very profitable. The counter argument that people throw at me is that drifters do win. Yes they do, and that is because this is horseracing and there is going to be an element of chaos in the system.

Finally on this point, confidence when punting is a key element when it comes to success but if confidence is replaced by arrogance the importance of what others are telling us may be ignored and that could be fatal to punters' aspirations.

Aegaeus was third in a fast time in a Lingfield handicap last time. He shaped like the best horse on the day, coming home with a rattle after being held up. Now back in a maiden he should gain his first win under Graham Lee, who to my eye seems to be getting better and better.

 

Today's Selection

3.00 Lingfield - Aegaeus (11/10 bet365)

 

 

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