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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 1st December

Have you noticed how quickly the ground is drying out at Newbury? In midweek it was soft, heavy in places but by 11.30am on Friday the Hurdle course was soft, good to soft in places and the chase course good to soft. This morning it is supposed to be the same. 

AP McCoy has given enough indication of concern for the chances of Teaforthree in the Hennessy Gold Cup. All good news for backers and supporters of Bob's Worth, not good news for me who had had a sneaky bet on Teaforthree. I hope to recoup any losses on various other selections throughout the day.

My form could be returning, having got a cricket question right at a sports quiz on Thursday night together with an NFL question.  Firstly, fingers tightly crossed that Newcastle gets the all clear and is free of frost. At odds-on I would like to oppose Cinders And Ashes; tactical four runner races are horrid to have a bet in but at 4-5 he looks one to take on. 

Back to Newbury and I think despite the ground being against Teaforthree it could be a day to remember for Rebecca Curtis, as the informative Aly Rowell put on Twitter on Friday that all six of her runners on Thursday finished in the first three. 

When AP McCoy rides her horses the strike rate is over 40 per cent. Today though the talented Patrick Corbett gets the opportunity to display his skills once more aboard Benheir a chaser of immense promise and Gus Macrae, making up a tiny each-way patent in my punting portfolio.

Before you ask, or even presume, yes I will be on Fox Appeal, who will present more of a surprise than Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible. As I have been championing him for some time now, I would never forgive myself if I miss out. It’s intriguing anyway to see how close he can get to Big Buck’s. What a thrill for the owners and what a sensible move to pick up prize-money, which is going begging.

As for the Hennessy, having set my heart on Teaforthree I feel a bit robbed by fate and have then found it hard to switch allegiances. Tempted no end by the charismatic Tidal Bay, who will doubtless finish placed at worse and has been tipped up by my editor, the favourite Bob's Worth is obvious and although I am a fan, I have plumped instead for Duke Of Lucca, but don’t feel confident enough to put him up a selection.

Today's tips:

1.25 Newbury Benheir (16/1 bet365)

3.40 Newbury Gus Macrae (6/1 bet365)

Tanya's pointers:

Hennessy Gold Cup:

Only three winners since 1992 were aged nine or over

Only three winners since first run in 1957 were aged 10 or over

Nine of the last 14 winners had come from the first three in the betting

Seventeen of the last 20 winners had won three or more races prior

Ten of the last 14 winners had had no more than seven races, seven of those ten winners had won at least three of those races

The horses to carry top weight to victory in recent years are Burrough Hill Lad in 1984, Trabolgan in 2005 and Denman 2007 & 2009

Fourteen of the last fifteen winners had had no more than one race prior to winning the Hennessy

Diamond Harry has won five of his six races at Newbury

Other races:

Rey Nacarado has won both his Newbury races

AP McCoy and Rebecca Curtis when teaming up have a 40% strike rate but if focusing just on hurdlers it goes up to over 50%

Nick Scholfield has ridden five winners from his last 11 rides

Eight of the last nine favourites have won the Long Distance Hurdle

Big Buck’s is trying to win his fourth consecutive Long Distance Hurdle

Ruby Walsh has ridden Big Buck’s in 18 races, winning 17 and finishing second once