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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 12th January 2013

The last update from me was earlier this week after my thrilling but pitiful display at the darts, but in my defence playing, correction, standing and aiming darts on the same oche as Michael Van Gerwen is daunting!

A varied schedule meant a trip to the House Of Commons for me on Tuesday as guest of Gerry Sutcliffe, MP and former Sports Minister, and Robin Grossmith, head of the Federation of Racecourse bookmakers. It was a really satisfactory evening to mark the bookmakers, government and racecourses agreeing on terms for the bookmakers' tenure of racecourse pitches.  Full credit to Lord Hesketh and Towcester who kick-started a happy ending to what could have been a different story a few years ago.

Plenty of column inches have been devoted to on-course betting markets this week.  The dynamic of the betting ring has changed so much in recent times. Gone are the charismatic bookmakers who could work out a percentage at a glance of their board. They could memorise their liabilities at times without the help of the clerk and had the discretion to lay horses to big amounts without hesitation. There also used to be infinite waiting lists for pitches at certain courses and bookmakers lining up in Silver Rings but these days there are very few courses with those enclosures.

Now with emptier racecourses, many more fixtures, escalating expenses and the advent of betting exchanges there are no longer bookmakers queuing up to operate.  Many pitches have changed hands on multiple occasions, the pitches themselves have depreciated in value and there are bookmakers who have more than one pitch at any given racecourse. 

Those that are left are divided between the major high street firms, who are choosy as to whether they stand at certain meetings, die-hards, and complete novices.  In my opinion in some cases if you unplugged their laptops they would struggle to price up a race.  Also in a few instances if you approached them, told them to not look at their laptop and add up the percentage on the board, let alone the percentage of the best prices they offered, I wonder how long it would be before an answer would materialise?  I hasten to add this is not the rule, but it is heading that way. 

The recent articles on poor percentages will only increase, in fact Catterick's 12.45pm on Thursday was returned at 133%, which was due to an each-way situation.  And I plan to investigate further the loss of strength, turnover, understanding and opinions on form and value to lay next week. 

I find it hard to justify each-way terms of 1/6 or worse, and if they then all go on to bet win only then it is even harder to justify poor percentages. However if the bookmakers are standing at courses where the attendance is very poor, or turnover non existent why should the odds be lengthened?

Forty bookmakers stood at Sandown on Saturday in the main ring and 14 on the rails.  A couple stated they didn’t lay a bet for the first two races – now in bookmaker language that could mean in the literal sense or it could mean where they normally turnover in the hundreds or even thousands they turned over just £20 to £50!

In my opinion the betting ring was nothing short of barren and the quietest I’d seen it on a Saturday. I can’t wait to see what Warwick is like today, once high on my list to have a pitch myself. I wonder what the course offers now in strength and depth?

The first few weeks of the New Year are notorious for some of the major independent bookmakers having time off from the courses, mainly due to the fact they know bad weather is likely to intervene. Yet I worry as the vibes I get is many of the familiar faces I generally put the world to rights with in the ring are selling out! Even more concerning is that there is no one willing to take their place.  The vicious circle is turning into a whirlpool with no solution.

It effects us all, the customer loses out as the value evaporates.  The racecourses lose out as the money they thought and budgeted on generating on pitch fees subsides.  Plus with less bookmakers the betting ring is less attractive so turnstiles click slower. I could go on, but here’s hoping it doesn’t come to this. Watch this space next week.

Warwick host the Betfred Classic Chase today plus a few other tasty contests. Plus there is the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton Park. Some races and horses could well be overlooked.

Warwick’s card has left me toying between favourite Pete The Feat and Benheir in the big one at 3.35pm. The latter is really keen and enthusiastic, he jumps boldly and sometimes over-big, which caught him out at Newbury when he leaped so far in advance that he landed on the fence which then knocked his confidence to such a degree that he was a spent force thereafter.

Pete The Feat looked out on his feet on his last win at Newbury, even though the eight-length margin far from lends itself to the fact

I want to keep Rocky Creek on my side in the 1.50pm at Warwick and I know he will have to face Highland Lodge, who destroyed Our Father at Cheltenham recently but even so, I will keep the faith.  

The Lanzarote has become a two horse race but the way Bear’s Affair won at Aintree it is very hard to oppose him despite the anchor of top weight. Finally I thought De La Bech did very well in the heavy at Ascot on 22 December. He's had sufficient time to recover and he can lead all the way in the 2.25pm at Warwick.

Just a couple of horses add into your NagMe account from last Saturday. Valco Du Touzaine is well worth watching again. He ran in Sandown’s 3.00pm behind Lord Of The House, a handicap hurdle, and I suspect he’ll find the winners enclosure soon.  

William’s Wishes was mightily impressive but will be no match for Sprinter Sacre at Ascot next Saturday. Melodic Rendezvous and Pendra should be followed after their one-two at the Esher track and Gevrey Chambertin looks every bit like his brother Grands Crus. 

Today's tips:

1.50 Warwick Rocky Creek (13/8 bet365)

2.25 Warwick De La Bech (7/1 bet365)

2.40 Kempton Bear’s Affair (6/1 bet365)

Tanya's Pointers:

Nicky Henderson is three from three in Kempton’s 12.55

Nick Williams has had two runners in the Lanzarote Hurdle both have won

Nicky Henderson’s last 9 runners in the Lanzarote Hurdle have all been beate

Nicky Henderson has had six winners from his last 20 Kempton runners

Robin Dickin and Henry Oliver have teamed up for three winners from their last eight runners

So far in January John Ferguson has had four winners from his eight runners

As of January 10 John Ferguson and Denis O’Regan have teamed up for five winners from their last nine runners

Charlie Longsdon has had four winners from his last nine Warwick runners

Four of the last six favourites have won Warwick’s 1.50pm

Four of the last six favourites have wonWarwick’s 3.00

Trainer Susan Gardner has had two winners from her four runners in January 2013

AP McCoy and Rebecca Curtis have a 45% strike rate this season over hurdles

AP McCoy has ridden At Fishers Cross five times for four wins and a second

Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden The New One six times winning on it five times

James Reveley and Keith Reveley have had five winners and a second from their last eight runners