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Angus McNae - Friday 5th April 2013

Sprinter Sacre is probably a certainty today in the John Smith's Melling Chase but there are some significant reasons for thinking that he is vulnerable.

Henderson's motivation:

Why is Sprinter Sacre running in this race rather than going to Punchestown to run in their Champion Chase over two miles? I do not have the conclusive answer to this, but prize money must be one of the major motivations.

I am not suggesting that Henderson is short of few quid, but losing the trainers' title at the death last year must have hurt him and he wants to win this year. A win for Sprinter Sacre this afternoon could all but seal the deal. He could of course win easily today and go to Punchestown, but that is an unlikely scenario. 

To stay or not to stay: 

Quite simply he is far from a certain stayer at two and a half miles. The only time he has tried the trip was at Ascot in November 2010 and on that occasion he was well beaten by Frascati Park, appearing not to get the trip. 

Nicky Henderson has been adamant this week that his pedigree is loaded with stamina and that is indisputable, but it is his style of racing that suggests he may not get home.

He is exuberant, fast and quick at his fences, which are all attributes that make him so exhilarating to watch over two miles, but over two and a half he will need to conserve energy and his freegoing nature does not lend itself to such tactics.   

He is the best horse in the race so if he does stay he will win, but there has to be a major doubt. 

Opposition:

If this was a race over two miles Sprinter Sacre would pulverize Cue Card and Flemenstar, but he is meeting them at a trip that is not ideal for him, but is ideal for them.

I have never been a Cue Card fan, but you need to recognize when you have made a bum call and at Cheltenham he made me eat a big slice of humble pie.

He was tremendous there and beat a top-class field, including First Lieutenant, who won the  Betfred Bowl yesterday. The good ground will suit him and he is certainly no pushover.

Flemenstar is an unknown quantity over here, but there is no doubt he is very talented and this is his trip. Both have a shot and should not be underestimated. 

Tactics:

What is Barry Geraghty going to do ? Surely he will try to conserve energy on Sprinter Sacre and hold him up? This tactic could cause his mount to pull hard using up vital petrol.

Alternatively he could bowl along in front and hope he gets home. If he does go to the front he is likely to be pestered by Cue Card, who is probably the stronger stayer and this too makes Sprinter Sacre vulnerable. The way I see it Cue Card will make the running and Sprinter Sacre will be held up pulling hard. 

I have put together a case to oppose Sprinter Sacre today, but I do so in absolute recognition of the following, which may in one line sum up what will happen. 

Sprinter Sacre is the fastest horse in the race, no need to over complicate matters, and he will be too good! 

Whatever happens it will be a fascinating race in which I think Cue Card will go out in front and Sprinter Sacre will cruise up to him in the straight. From there the stamina reserves will be tested and it may be Cue Card who has the deeper well of reserves. 

Today's Selection:

3.05pm Aintree - Cue Card at 7-1 with William Hill